Why NZ should always be prepared for a natural disaster

Wednesday, 22 January 2020

The geographic make-up of New Zealand has been brought uncomfortably close to home over the past decade.

Watching and waiting for earthquakes, and now volcanic eruptions, has become somewhat of a national pastime.

GeoNet, which was established in 2001 and operated in relative obscurity for almost a decade, burst onto the collective conscious almost overnight after the Christchurch Earthquakes of 2010 and 2011, and now more than 200,000 people follow its social media pages for updates on every minor shake from Milford Sound to Whakatāne.

The disasters that the country is unfortunately prone to have a hefty price tag attached, not only in the incalculable cost of human life and ongoing psychological effects, but also in the more mercenary but still difficult to assess economic sense.

To prepare for and reduce those costs where possible is all that we can do - so what are the measures being taken?

Whakaari/White Island's eruption is just one of the latest in a long line of recent reminders of the geological activity New Zealand is prone to.

* Small Otago settlement on the front foot facing future of Alpine Fault magnitude 8 earthquake

* Are we ready? What to expect when the Alpine Fault ruptures**

University of Otago Professor Mark Stirling, with his finger on Akatore Fault, one of many that run through Otago.

Who are the disaster preppers?

Disaster preparation is urged at every level, for individuals packing home kits all the way up to the national level, including the creation of the Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8) group which works with South Island Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) groups to prepare for the worst 'scientifically credible' scenario: a magnitude 8 earthquake on the Alpine Fault.

Civil Defence is locally, rather than nationally co-ordinated, so each region can prepare for and respond to local risks and emergencies with help from other regions where necessary, illustrated by the Nelson Tasman CDEM group taking point on 2019's Pigeon Valley fire.

However, while many earthquakes are localised, like Kaikōura and the Canterbury quakes, an Alpine Fault rupture would almost certainly affect the entire South Island and potentially parts of the North.

Acting director of Emergency Management Otago, Michele Pool noted that there were several faults in Otago, any one of which could rupture at any time with no warning: a situation typical of most places in New Zealand, which has at least 500 active fault lines.

'We've got quite a network of fault lines that have been identified and scoped out over years, but the thing with the Alpine Fault is if we're prepared to respond to an Alpine Fault rupture, then we're prepared for all the rest as well,' Pool said.

'We've been able to do a great deal of collaborative work, which means that we're not just planning in isolation.'

It's not just South Island CDEM groups that are preparing, either, because localised earthquakes could strike anywhere. Hawke's Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management group manager Ian Macdonald said preparing for earthquakes was part of 'comprehensive emergency management'.

'Hawke's Bay is one of New Zealand's most seismically active regions and as such earthquakes represent one of our most significant risks. We experience many smaller earthquakes each year, and a large earthquake could occur at any time.'

Many communities throughout New Zealand are at risk of isolation when vulnerable road networks are damaged.

He said the immediate priority was to protect people and provide for ongoing welfare, but after the immediate dangers were dealt with there were plans in place to move on to long-term goals.

'Recovering from a disaster is a complex process that may take months, years and decades to overcome. Disasters affect people, but also the environment, built infrastructure and the economy. We aim to work to help people get back to acceptable quality of life as soon as possible.'

What are we preparing for?

The AF8 group's researchers have come up with a 'maximum credible event' in their South Island Alpine Fault Earthquake Response (SAFER) Framework, a worst-case scenario to prepare for in the event of an alpine rupture.

This event 'represents the most widespread and severe damage credibly possible from an Alpine Fault rupture', and aside from risk to life, it outlines infrastructural weaknesses throughout the South Island which make for grim reading.

'The South Island's road network, fuel, water, air transport, electricity, telecommunications and marine transport infrastructure are vulnerable to disruption from earthquakes and lack redundancy,' The SAFER report reads.

'Telecommunications services are increasingly hubbed in major centres, are not locally or regionally autonomous, and therefore vulnerable to failure caused by link disruption. Key electricity generation and distribution components are concentrated near to the Alpine Fault and widely distributed, making them similarly vulnerable.'

The effects of earthquakes can linger mentally, economically, and physically, like the damaged AMI stadium in Chrsistchurch which was finally completely demolished almost 10 years after the quake that damaged it.

Though AF8 is working on a South-Island-wide scenario, these events were writ smaller, though still significant, in various local events over the past decade, like the long, hard work to reopen State Highway 1 after the 2016 earthquake and various alternate routes called into action during the disruption when Kaikōura was cut off.

Network vulnerabilities were also brought home last December to Spark customers living further south than Ashburton in the South Island, when wild weather, floods and slips cut off Spark's two fibre-optic cables at the Rangitata river, leaving many residents with nothing but 111 phone service.

Adding it up

All of these effects add up to a costly exercise.

Damage to infrastructure like roads and rail have significant impact, especially in more isolated communities.

The damage from the Canterbury earthquakes were in 2011 estimated by the Treasury in that year to be between $10 to $15 billion, with the assumed cost of the rebuild being the equivalent of around 10 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

It was calculated in 2012 by insurer Swiss Re to be globally the third most expensive earthquake in history, with economic losses up to $22b, partly thanks to New Zealand's unusually high levels of earthquake insurance.

A 2017, Market Economics Ltd report on the Kaikōura quake modelled three two-year scenarios and found an economic loss of between $465 million and $513 million.

Then-minister of Economic Development and Transport Simon Bridges said at the time that 'two key contributing factors' were increased freight costs and the effects of infrastructure damage.

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) development and transitions policy director Robyn Henderson said the response to disaster events was always 'situation specific'.

Community action, like the Farmy Army and Student Volunteer Army which formed after the Christchurch earthquakes, is key to earthquake response.

She said MBIE learned from previous events where possible, and updated regulations to reduce damage and therefore costs in future events.

'For example, recent changes to the building code such as the one last November where buildings on liquefaction-prone ground will require specifically designed foundations.'

But when disaster strikes, MBIE and the government work with the local authorities on rebuild and recovery, she said.

'Examples of the roles that MBIE is well placed to play include capability provided to local government, direct financial assistance, or regulatory changes to respond to the changing context, for example immigration changes may be needed to enable the free flow of necessary workers with needed skills into New Zealand.'

All in it together

The message seems to be that communities will need to work together to lead themselves through disaster.

Pool said people needed to be prepared for the reality that Civil Defence was not 'an army in cold storage'.

'I tend to think that people have the impression that perhaps we're the Terracotta Warriors, that somehow we will all rise up and there will be this huge resource, when actually the resource is within the community.'

Though Government agencies work on policies to reduce risks and potential costs, and prepare to distribute emergency responders and resources should the need arise, community preparation is a key step that people can take action on.

'People need to understand that they will be looking after themselves and their neighbours for an extended period depending on the magnitude of the emergency,' Pool said.

'I wouldn't presume to put any sort of time frame on it, but if you look again at the impacts of the Kaikōura earthquake, it took a year to reopen one length of SH1, with all the resources that went into it. So if you look at an earthquake that affects the whole of the South Island, I think it's reasonable to assume that this is not going to be any sort of quick return to normality for many people.'