New Zealand not immune as Russian invasion heralds 'lawless world' - professor

Friday, 25 February 2022

Explosions have been reported in multiple Ukrainian cities since Russia began a large-scale attack. Pictured are people in the capital, Kyiv, standing around a damaged structure caused by a rocket.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of the Ukraine will hit New Zealanders in the pocket, and could have wider implications for the Asia-Pacific region, an international law expert says.

University of Waikato Professor Alexander Gillespie – also a laws of war expert - said the big question more locally is “what will China do?’

“The country you’ve got to watch for is China,” he said.

Gillespie said the invasion puts China at a crossroads with regard to their own territorial ambitions towards Taiwan.

Breakfast’s Matty McLean talks through what led to the military invasion in Ukraine.

* Ukraine - Russia situation: What to know in the escalating crisis

University of Waikato Law Professor Alexander Gillespie said in the wake of the invasion “we are entering a lawless world”.

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He said the Winter Olympics is over, US President Joe Biden is seen as weak, and Chinese leaders face a pivotal decision that could shape the region for decades to come – launch their own invasion, “or support international law”.

Gillespie also expected to see Kiwis hit in the pocket.

“Inflation is already just under seven per cent, now you’ll see a spike in oil and overflow into other markets.”

He expected to see a huge spike in defence spending across the globe too, and the potential for nuclear proliferation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade the Ukraine is likely to hit New Zealanders in the pocket, a University of Waikato international law expert says.

He said there was “no way Russian would have invaded” if Ukraine had kept its nuclear weapons, handed back to Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Gillespie said that’s a lesson other countries would certainly take in the wake of the invasion.

“We are entering a lawless world, you’ve got to make sure your country can defend itself.”

Asked how many international laws had been broken by Putin, Gillespie asked “over the century, over the decades?”

He cited incidents such as the wars in Chechnya, the invasion of Crimea, the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine in 2014 and the use of nerve agents to target defectors in England.

Gillespie said Putin was “someone who violates the rules when he wants to”.

He said he expected to see Ukraine fight alone, albeit with Western assistance, but he did not expect Putin to set his sights beyond Ukraine's borders, especially towards North Atlantic Treaty Alliance [NATO] nations.

He said there are no treaty obligations to defend Ukraine, and if NATO nations were targeted, “we’re in World War Three”.

He said Russia’s actions presented the world with another problem too.

“What do you do when one of the [United Nations] Security Council members breaks the rules?”

Gillespie said he expected to see sanctions imposed on Russia by New Zealand, but warned that’s a double-edged sword.

Put bluntly, if we stop selling Russia butter, we lose out too.

He said that while Putin’s actions were reckless, “it’s not impulsive”

He said it took time to amass the 150,000 military personnel and equipment ahead of the invasion.

“It’s not something he’s drifted into,” he said.

“This is one of those days you’ll remember when you're an old person.”