Twice as many Aucklanders in 50 years? Tall, not sprawl, the key to making it work

Wednesday, 31 May 2023

In 50 years, there could be 3.3 million Aucklanders in the City of Sails – but, given more floods are also predicted – where will we put them all?

Planners say building up, instead of out, is the key to making room for everyone.

In their latest population projections, Auckland Council and Stats NZ researchers predict that by 2073, there could be 3,384,500 people in Tāmaki Makaurau – that’s the highest estimate.

We don’t have to live in skyscrapers, instead mid-rise apartments are the best way to keep Aucklanders housed safely out of flood plains.

RIMU, the council’s Research and Evaluation Unit offers five projections, built with Stats NZ. At the highest potential growth, the city doubles. At the lowest end, the city barely budges – going from today’s 1.7m to 1,814,600 people.

Belinda Storey is writing her PhD on the growing hazards from climate change on property prices and insurance.

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Belinda Storey, an expert in climate change risk, said with just 16% of Auckland on floodplains, there is more than enough room to avoid flood risk for 3.3m people.

Storey is the managing director of Climate Sigma, which assesses liability risk from climate change. She said mid-rise apartments of around six storeys could solve the city’s housing needs.

Both the “high” and “very high” population projections are plausible, Storey said. With Aotearoa’s location and “relatively mild” climate, this country will continue to be attractive to migrants for a long time – even as the climate warms radically.

“We will experience extremes but, relative to other locations, New Zealand will be quite attractive,” she said.

So to accommodate those migrants, which drive the city’s projected growth, it’s time to build up, Storey said.

“Because we’ve insisted on sprawling, we’ve sprawled into locations that our predecessors and mana whenua knew were a bad place to build because they were swampy or prone to flooding.

“There is so much opportunity for us to build much higher density, well-designed places to live that are very enjoyable.”

Dr Tim Welch, senior lecturer in architecture and planning, said he believes it’s possible to reach 3.3m people by 2073.

Welch, who teaches at the University of Auckland, said there is enough space in Auckland to accommodate twice its current population, but not without major changes to our car culture.

Globally, Aotearoa has among the highest car ownership rates – we’re seventh in the world, with 884 cars for every 1000 people.

We have more cars per capita than the US, which has 60 times our population and boasts 831 cars per 1000 people, and more than Canada too (731 cars for every 1000 people).

“Everyone owning a car and driving it every day is not going to be possible,” Welch said.

Instead, Auckland will need stronger public transport systems, and for the existing inner city road network to be better shared.

He said priority bus lanes, bike lanes and overground trams or light rail have proven effective overseas, and would work here too,

As to where everyone might live come 2073? Welch said there is plenty of space in the existing city centre – which is about the same size as 9m-strong London.

Comparing the two, Welch said Auckland could house 3.3m easily without resorting to expensive and inequitable urban sprawl, that costs people more the further away from the centre they are.

“Most cities that approach higher populations are more open to apartment living and medium density housing,” Welch said.

Not only would keeping most people within the existing city centre area be more affordable for families and support a stronger public transport network, but Welch said it’s key to our climate resilience too.

Auckland’s undeveloped farm areas are also wetlands and floodplains, he said.

“They are areas we shouldn’t develop anyway, if we have learned any lessons from this year,” he said.

“Filling in the city where the city already exists – that will be the key to making the city liveable, sustainable and more resilient to climate change.”

University of Auckland researcher Professor Paul Spoonley preferred to look at the middle projection, which suggests Auckland could reach 2.4m people in 2073, just a little over previous projections from 2021 for the early 2030s.

Spoonley, who is an affiliate member of the university’s Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures, said also important to consider is the age profile of that population – an older cohort than currently in Auckland, with fewer working age people.

No matter which projection you look at, one in four Aucklanders will be aged over 65 by 2073, while the working age group falls.

Our road network, public transport and housing infrastructure will all have to manage that new reality, Spoonley said.

“We’ve got to get used to declining fertility,” he said.

“The Ministry of Education are expecting 30,000 fewer school children in the 2030s. Those are the people you would expect to come into the labour market.”