National and Act could form government if election held, new poll reveals

Saturday, 14 May 2022

Leader of the Opposition, Christopher Luxon.

National and ACT would have enough votes to form a government if the election was held now, a new poll commissioned by the Taxpayers’ Union reveals.

The Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll found National had the support of 36.8% of those polled, compared to 34.2% for Labour, 9.7% for Greens, 10.9% for ACT and 2.4% for Māori.

But National’s lead over Labour is within the 3.1% margin of error for the poll.

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Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern at the post cabinet press conference in the Beehive last week.

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The Taxpayers’ Union said the poll results would translate to 47 seats for National, 14 for ACT, 44 for Labour, 12 for Greens, and three for Māori, assuming all electorate seats are held.

That would mean National and ACT could form a government with 61 seats, compared to 59 seats for Labour, Greens and Māori combined.

It is the first time the poll, which began in September, has shown that the two parties could form a government.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research from May 4 to May 11. The poll asked 1000 eligible New Zealand voters by landline, mobile phone and online panel. The participants were randomly selected from a list of 20,000 nationwide phone numbers.

The results are weighted to match the demographics of New Zealand. The maximum sampling error is plus or minus 3.1%.

Taxpayers’ Union board member David Farrar is a director at Curia Market Research.

The poll also found that the cost of living was the most important voting issue for those polled, with the economy a distant second. The poll found that Covid-19 was no longer a significant voting issue for those polled.