Cyclone Gabrielle to hit Northland, bad weather already at Cape Reinga
Saturday, 11 February 2023
The Far North is already experiencing wind gusts close to 100kph as Cyclone Gabrielle tracks closer to New Zealand.
MetService has issued red heavy rain warnings for Coromandel Peninsula and Tairāwhiti Gisborne north of Tolaga Bay, and orange heavy rain and severe wind warnings for Northland, Auckland north of Whangaparaoa and including Great Barrier Island, Coromandel, the rest of Tairāwhiti Gisborne and Hawkes Bay.
Those areas should start to feel the effects of Cyclone Gabrielle later Saturday and early Sunday morning.
MetService forecaster Tuporo Marsters said Cape Reinga is already experiencing wind gusts of close to 100kph.
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“They’ve got isolated showers there at the moment, but will be experiencing rain this evening.”
The heavy rain won’t set in till the morning, he said, with gusts reaching up to 120kph.
The cyclone was 920km away from Cape Reinga at 5:30pm on Saturday and only 180km away from Norfolk Island.
Central Auckland remains under a severe wind and rain watch due to the uncertainty of the position of the cyclone and its possible impacts. This warning could also be upgraded.
Forecasts of large sea swells of up to 7m, and storm surges leading to possible coastal inundation, are in place for all northern and eastern coastlines.
“Cyclone Gabrielle is still heading for New Zealand [and is] likely to arrive slightly earlier for Northland on Saturday night,” the MetService said.
“There is a very high risk of extreme and impactful weather over the upper North Island late Saturday then spreading south to central New Zealand by Monday.”
The MetService has issued its highest level of warning – a red warning for heavy rain for Coromandel Peninsula where 300 to 400mm of rain is expected in the ranges and Tairāwhiti Gisborne north of Tolaga Bay is expecting the same numbers.
The most intense rain is expected to fall on Monday.
MetService head of weather communication Lisa Murray said other areas, including Northland, could expect to see 250mm or more of rain and wind gusts of up to 130kmh.
“Strong wind gusts could damage trees, powerlines and unsecured structures,” she said.
“These already sodden grounds from recent floods increases the likelihood of trees being uprooted from that heavy rain and strong winds, which adds to the risk of power outages.
“Heavy rain will likely cause surface flooding and landslips, as well as hazardous road conditions and road washouts. Heavy rain will also cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly.”
Murry said warning periods could be extended in future updates, and would be dependent on the track of Cyclone Gabrielle.
“During the severe weather from Sunday to Tuesday, depending where in the North Island and top of South Island you are situated, people should hunker down till the severe weather passes, if at all possible.”
Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is expected to change from a tropical cyclone to a sub-tropical low tomorrow.
“This does not mean it weakens, in fact it spreads the strong wind and heavy rain across a wider area,” Murray said.
Only the top of the South Island makes the MetService’s warning list in the south, with a “strong wind watch” in place for Marlborough, Nelson, and Buller – north of Seddonville – for 24-hours from Monday evening.
“South to southeast winds are expected to approach or possibly exceed severe gale in exposed places,” the MetSerice said.
“The duration of the event and the strength of the wind is highly dependent on the track of Cyclone Gabrielle.”
The MetService said this warning could be upgraded from yellow to orange, or possibly red, in the coming days.