Cyclone Gabrielle: What will happen next and when will it be over?

Tuesday, 14 February 2023

“Treacherous” conditions from Cyclone Gabrielle continue to affect much of the country, causing evacuations, widespread power outages and the declaration of a national emergency. What will happen next, and when will it be over? Hannah Martin reports.

After a “rough” night, the red heavy rain warning for Great Barrier Island and Auckland has expired while the heavy rain band has cleared the region, Auckland-based MetService meteorologist Georgina Griffiths said.

But just as Auckland starts to emerge from the cyclone with “this the last day for us”, Griffiths reminded people to be mindful that other regions are now being affected “very strongly by Cyclone Gabrielle, and they’ve got a wee bit to go… a few more days”.

As the cyclone continues to lash Aotearoa, it’s expected to track east-southeast on Tuesday, passing just to the north of East Cape on Tuesday evening, before moving southeast away from the North Island to the northeast of the Chatham Islands by late Wednesday.

* Cyclone Gabrielle: What you need to know in your region

* Power outages and widespread damage expected from severe gales in Auckland later today

* Cyclone Gabrielle: More than 120,000 homes without power in North Island

* One firefighter missing, one critically injured in landslide at Auckland's Muriwai

The main rain band is shifting southwards over southern Hawke’s Bay and Wairarapa, stretching down to southern Taranaki on Tuesday morning, MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane said.

Chatham Islands – 850km offshore from Christchurch – is expecting heavy rain and strong winds from Tuesday afternoon, with the system passing just to the north of them on Wednesday. This will be tied with large easterly waves, an “unusual direction” for the Islands, MetService says.

The cyclone is then expected to lie east of the Chatham Islands early Thursday, and move away to the southeast while “gradually weakening”.

Though Gabrielle takes a southeast track, moving away from Aotearoa New Zealand from early tomorrow, the impacts will be felt for much longer, MetService says.

Looking ahead, Wednesday will see rain continue into the capital, and a “few” showers for central and the northern North Island – though there will be a “dry break” across Waikato and Bay of Plenty.

There’s more wet weather from Thursday, but (apart from Wellington and Wairarapa) most areas will see showers, the meteorological service says.

People were trapped after two houses collapse in Auckland's Muriwai, while two firefighters were caught in a landslide. One is still missing.

For the South Island, wet weather continues for Canterbury and Marlborough during Wednesday, dry elsewhere but a few showers in the far south. This continues on Thursday with an easing trend through the day.

“There is some light at the end of the tunnel,” MetService meteorologist Andrew James said. A ridge is forecast over the North Island bringing settled weather from the weekend onwards.

“There are still a couple of bands of wet weather to cross before then, so stay up to date with your MetService forecast.”

Auckland, Northland ‘not out of the woods’

An already-sodden Auckland was hit hard on Monday night, particularly the region’s west coast, where officials have “grave concerns” for a volunteer firefighter missing in Muriwai after a landslide which hit a house, critically injuring another firefighter, and 265mm of rain fell in Piha, isolating suburbs.

There would still be some passing showers on Tuesday, but in “good news”, Auckland would have a “relatively settled spell” in terms of rainfall, until “at least Sunday”, Griffiths said.

While the rain threat has passed, Auckland was “not out of the woods” and should still expect “severe” southwesterly gales on Tuesday, with wind damage possible, she said.

A red strong wind warning remains in force for Tāmaki Makaurau (including Great Barrier and other Hauraki Gulf islands) until midnight Tuesday, with warnings of gusts up to 120kph in exposed places.

Although some of the severe weather was starting to ease in the upper North Island, there are still heavy rain warnings for western parts of Northland (south of Kaitaia); red strong wind warnings in Northland; and an orange strong wind warning for Coromandel Peninsula.

The Far North, the first area to get hit by Cyclone Gabrielle, is still getting battered by rain and strong southwest winds, where about 14,000 homes remain without power.

Flooding at Tairua Bridge on the Coromandel during Cyclone Gabrielle, pictured on Monday.

More than 100 people remain in evacuation centres in Northland and cellphone outages are making it difficult for people to communicate.

Communications in Tairāwhiti are fully out on Tuesday morning, cutting off the area, and all major arterial roads in and out of Coromandel Peninsula are closed, also leaving it cut off.

How are regions faring?

It was a very wet night across most of the upper/east North Island on Monday night.

Between 6pm on Monday and 8am Tuesday, rainfall across the Auckland region ranged between 130-190mm, Makgabutlane said.

The Auckland Council station in Waitākere recorded an accumulation of 188mm of rain over that same period.

The heaviest rainfall intensities in Auckland fell between about 1-4am, with multiple stations seeing 15-20mm in an hour.

Great Barrier Island also had a “hard” night: between 6pm and 8am, 78mm was recorded at the Claris weather station, and wind gusts at the Mokohinau Islands measured about 110kph.

A southwesterly gust of 117kph was recorded at Āwhitu, and 152km at Manukau Heads, in the hour between 8-9pm.

Coromandel Peninsula saw rainfall accumulations ranging between 100-260mm in the 24 hours to 8am Tuesday, with that upper recording coming from the Pinnacles.

Whangamatā saw 206mm, and 98mm in Whitianga, Makgabutlane said.

Gisborne copped a lot of rain – between 250-370mm in many places – and was still under an orange red heavy rain warning until midnight Tuesday.

Over the same 24-hour period, to 8am, Hawke’s Bay recorded between 130-200mm of rainfall, with some places getting close to 290mm (an elevated station – Pukeorapa). Napier Airport had its second-wettest day on record with 175mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9am on Tuesday.

Multiple people on SH5 in Hawke’s Bay are trapped in vehicles and houses, and people are trapped awaiting rescue in Puketapu.

Helicopters aren’t currently able to rescue people trapped on roofs due to the high winds, Fire and Emergency said just before 11.30am.

Will the cyclone wear itself out?

Alwyn Bakker, Meteorologist from MetService, said on Tuesday afternoon that Cyclone Gabrielle is 'still completely destructive'.

Despite it no longer being a “tropical” cyclone, it is still accurate to call Gabrielle a cyclone and MetService continue will continue to use that term as it thrashes its way across the North Island.

Bakker said the odds are high that Cyclone Gabrielle will be gone by Thursday and when it passes the Chathams, New Zealand will be in the clear.

'After the Chathams have stopped having effects from the Cyclone is when we can say it has passed and is over' he said.

Bakker said the prediction is that Cyclone Gabrielle will be some distance east of the Chathams at 7am on Thursday.