South to get cold shock next week

Thursday, 2 November 2017

After warm sunshine through this week, southern parts of the country are about to be plunged back into a chilly spell that could feel a lot like winter.

After three days with highs in the mid-20s, Invercargill dropped to a still pleasant 21 degrees Celsius on Wednesday, and is expected to get to 22C on a fine Thursday - but that's pretty much the end of the party.

MetService still expects the southern centre to be warm on Friday but the clouds will be rolling in and a strong westerly is on the way.

Temperatures start dropping from Saturday, and the high on a rainy Sunday is only expected to be 13C.

The large high centred near the Chatham Islands that has dominated the country's weather for several days, bringing in warm air from the northeast, should be moving away to the east on Friday. 

That will allow a trough to move from the Tasman Sea onto the South Island, quickly followed on Saturday by another trough.

The west of the South Island is expected to have a wet couple of days, while there's a chance of severe northwesterly gales on Saturday in the South Island high country, the Marlborough Sounds, Wellington and Wairarapa.

For Thursday, Northland, Auckland and Bay of Plenty are forecast to be cloudy with a few light showers. Most of the rest of the North Island should be mainly fine, as should the east of the South Island, although areas of coastal fog are possible from Canterbury southwards in the morning.

MetService expects the northerlies that have prevailed this week to give way to low pressures and a southwesterly regime next week.

The second half of the month is expected to be changeable, with the 'full range of weather patterns', MetService said in its November Outlook.

'Expect a mixture of both westerlies and easterlies on the weather map later in November. However, intermittent high pressure is predicted to favour the South Island from about mid-month.'

November rainfall was expected to be near normal, because of the full range of weather patterns expected during the month, MetService said. 'That means that week to week, rainfall is likely to be highly variable in any given region.'

Central Otago residents might be hoping they get some of that rainfall, after an extremely dry October during which only 4.8mm of rain was recorded in Queenstown.

On Thursday, Auckland is forecast to have a high of 20C, with cloudy periods, a few light showers and northeasterlies. Wellington is expected to have a fine day with an 18C high but cloud is set to increase from evening.

Christchurch is headed for 24C with a fine day, apart from possible morning fog. On Friday the forecast high is 26C, with gusty northwesterlies expected from afternoon.