GPs seeing rise in visits but is it Covid-19, flu or just winter illness?

Wednesday, 15 May 2024

A leading modeller says it's likely we'll see an increase in Covid-19 cases in the coming weeks, as new variants have emerged overseas

GPs are seeing an ‘uptick’ in illness around Aotearoa.
It comes as recent data shows there was ‘quite a jump’ in Covid-19 wastewater detections.
Experts say it’s too soon to know if this is part of a larger trend, but that an increase in Covid-19 cases could be on the cards, as new variants have emerged overseas.

It’s getting colder, and it seems more people are coming down with something: is it the flu? Is it Covid-19? What’s going on?

Tauranga-based GP and medical director for the Royal New Zealand College of GPs, Dr Luke Bradford, said GPs are definitely 'starting to see the uptick' in winter illness.

Mid-May is about the time you'd expect to see this increase, he said, and it's 'noticeable' when it starts.

Bradford said already doctors were seeing more influenza, 'definitely more Covid-19', and some RSV, but weren't yet nearing peak in terms of demand.

And after a “relatively quiet” couple of months on the Covid-19 front, there are some early signs the picture could be changing, a leading modeller says — as new variants appear to be gathering pace overseas.

Since January, Aotearoa’s Covid-19 numbers have been gradually trending downwards, University of Canterbury Professor Michael Plank says, but over the last week or so there have been “signs” these might be trending back up again.

For one, the latest wastewater surveillance data, by the Institute of Environmental Science and Research (ESR), showed “quite a jump” in the average amount of virus (to May 5) detected compared to the previous few weeks, Plank said.

An average of 5.96 million copies of the virus detected per person, per day, in wastewater nationally as at May 5.

A group of newer Covid-19 variants - descendant from JN.1 - look to be driving a growth in cases numbers internationally, and appear to have a growth advantage in terms of how quickly they can spread.

This was up from 3.08m copies per person, per day, a week earlier, on April 28.

This looked to be the highest it has been since early January 2024, when there was a peak of 8.59 million copies of the virus detected.

Plank said wastewater data can jump up and down week-to-week, so he tended not to read too much into one weeks’ data — having more data over the coming weeks would give more of a picture, he said.

Professor Michael Plank says it’s probably likely New Zealand will see an increase in Covid-19 numbers in the coming weeks - but exactly how much of an increase isn’t yet clear.

It comes as a new family of different variants referred to as ‘FLiRT’ variants - named after the technical names for their mutations - have emerged internationally.

Their mutations appear to give them a bit of an advantage in terms of how quickly they can spread, and look to be driving a growth in numbers internationally, Plank said.

“There seems to be a number of countries where those numbers are starting to increase, again coinciding with the arrival of those variants”.

CBS recently reported that it’s estimated more than a third of cases in the United States are these ‘FLiRT variants’.

As we’re headed into the colder months and people head indoors, this could help to give Covid-19 and other illnesses a ‘bit of a helping hand’, Plank said.

We were also seeing an increase in the “market share” of these new variants in our wastewater, Plank said.

Plank said there had also been a “bit of an increase” in the number of Covid-19 hospital admissions this week.

Dr Joanne Hewitt, Science Leader, Health and Environment, at ESR said nationally, Covid wastewater detections had gone up - but also stressed that one week of data did not constitute a trend.

Over the month of April, the trend was either stable or slightly downward, but did look to have gone up into the beginning of May, Hewitt said.

Sometimes you can see the national wastewater data is affected by just one or two significant sites, however a “good proportion” of sites had seen an increase, Hewitt said.

Plank thought it was possible we could see an increase in Covid-19 numbers in the coming weeks.

“Exactly how much of an increase, I think, is uncertain.”

The growth rate of these newer variants was not as big as what was seen with JN.1, he said, which would suggest any wave would likely be smaller than what we saw over Christmas.

That said, as it gets colder and people head indoors more at this time of year, that could potentially give Covid-19 “a bit of a helping hand”.

There’s also flu circulating around.

ESR’s latest weekly virology report shows there have been 742 positive influenza specimens in Aotearoa since the beginning of the year - the majority being influenza A.

There had also been more than 1500 specimens positive for RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) so far this year, ESR’s weekly report stated.

Coming into winter, Bradford said if you haven’t yet had a flu vaccine or Covid-19 jab and are eligible, “go and do it”.

He encouraged people to practice good hand hygiene, and to stay away from vulnerable people if you’re unwell.

Health New Zealand public health medicine specialist (protection), Emma Sherwood said Covid-19 is “still very much present” in our communities and a “significant” health risk.

Sherwood said they continue to remind people of the importance of being up-to-date with all of their vaccinations, including additional doses of Covid-19 vaccine for those eligible.

Covid-19 antivirals were also available for eligible people, and masks and RATs continue to remain available for free to the general public, Sherwood said.