Odds are it’s going to be a warm autumn

Monday, 10 March 2025

You may still have time to pop some manus without getting hypothermia.

The heat is on - still - for autumn, with above-average temperatures expected in many places.

According to Niwa’s Seasonal Climate Outlook, is the heat is expected to continue throughout the season.

The experts are also predicting less rain in many places - and a slightly increased risk of cyclones.

So its going to stay warm?

The short answer is yes.

Put the coat and beanie away, because temperatures are expected to remain above average across the country from March through to May.

According to Niwa, seasonal air temperatures are expected to be above average for the north and west of both the North and South Island, with about equal chances for near average or above average seasonal temperatures for the east of the North Island and the east of the South Island.

The climate researcher has given the central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatū and Wellington as well as Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty 50% and 45% chances of above average temperatures from March through to May.

There is also a 50% chance temperatures will be above average for the South Island West Coast, Southern Alps and foothills, inland Otago and Southland.

Is it going to rain more too?

Aucklanders and Northlanders know too well what rain can bring in warm weather - humidity.

Put the coat and beanie away, because temperatures are expected to remain above average across the country throughout Autumn.

Well you may not need to worry about frizzy hair and sweat from sitting down, as it will be dry at times, especially early in the forecast period, Niwa says.

Autumn rainfall totals are expected to be near normal or below normal for the west of the North Island and the west of the South Island.

Rainfall is also expected to be near normal for the north of the North Island and north of the South Island, and near normal or above normal rainfall in the east of both islands.

What about cyclones?

Late summer through early autumn is the peak of the tropical cyclone season. The risk for an ex-tropical cyclone to pass within 550 km of New Zealand is normal-to-elevated through April.

'Ocean waters remain much warmer than average around the South Island, with extended areas offshore as well as Cook Strait experiencing marine heatwave (MHW) conditions,“ said the NIWA National Climate Centre's Chris Brandolino.