Rising risk of a ‘violent outcome’: What Tom Phillips sighting reveals about the fugitive’s case

Saturday, 30 August 2025

Fugitive Tom Phillips’ family made a heartfelt appeal last week to bring his three children home. A week later, his alleged burglary of a grocery store suggests he is instead digging in.

The latest sighting of fugitive Tom Phillips in a late-night burglary offers new clues to his situation, police and experts say, including the possibility that he no longer has people helping him.

Police also made their strongest statements so far on the risk Phillips posed if confronted, detailing their belief that this could place his three children at risk.

In the latest development in the Marokopa fugitive’s case, on Friday morning NZ police released footage of what they believed was Phillips and one of his children breaking into a superette in the small Waikato town of Piopio at around 2am on Wednesday.

Phillips and his children Jayda, Maverick and Ember, have been on the run since December 2021. He is facing a number of charges, including aggravated robbery.

The police strategy

Despite the “brazen” burglary, police said they were not changing tactics in finding Phillips and his family.

“This will take as long as it takes,” said Detective Senior Sergeant Andy Saunders at a press conference in Hamilton. “We are not going to get into a confrontation situation.”

Police remain of the view that Phillips is a dangerous fugitive and that an aggressive search would be the wrong approach.

Saunders would not be drawn on whether Phillips had made any specific threats, but gave further detail on why police were treading carefully.

“Our concern is that Tom will pose a risk to anyone that tries to stop the way he’s living his lifestyle with his children,” he said.

Did he pose a risk to his children?

“That’s a concern of ours, certainly,” Saunders said.

A number of factors - extended time in isolation and Phillips’ criminal behaviour - are increasing concerns that he and his family’s situation is becoming more precarious.

“The longer we isolate, the more paranoid we become,” said former police negotiator Lance Burdett, who has been closely monitoring the case.

“Just look at what just happened in Australia [in the Dezi Freeman case]. The police responses are different in those areas.

“The defences go up and it becomes about ‘us and them’. To break through is so, so difficult. And to be quite frank, the higher the risk of a violent outcome.”

The children were likely to have developed extreme attachment to Phillips after nearly four years in isolation, he said.

“Stockholm syndrome forms with a captive. You imagine how much greater that attachment would be if it’s with someone you love and you believe they’re doing the right thing.”

Saunders said that police had engaged with an in-house psychologist to build a profile of Phillips: “That all forms part of what we think Tom’s up to and where his headspace is at.”

The timing

The alleged burglary came a week after the Phillips family made a public appeal on Paddy Gower Has Issues for him to come home.

This included a letter from his mum, Julia Phillips, which was read out by his sister Rozzi. Police also publicly offered a deal if he surrendered.

Stuff reporter Tony Wall spent a night in the bush as part of Gower’s investigation, and pointed out that there was now very good cellphone reception in the Marokopa bush and surrounding areas.

That meant accessing the internet to see the appeal was more possible than people realised. It is also possible Phillips could access wi-fi from farm buildings.

And with the police convinced that people are helping Phillips, he could also have been told about the appeal.

Some felt that the burglary was a clear signal that Phillips had no plans to hand himself in.

“If the appeal was successful, he wouldn’t be out committing [burglaries],” Burdett said.

“It sounds like he’s digging in.That might be because of, or in spite of, the appeal. He is saying ‘I am not coming near you’.”

The burglary

Police have long believed that Phillips has been getting help from sympathetic supporters to survive in the wild.

The fact that he took the risk of breaking into a grocery store could indicate that he no longer had this support or his circumstances had changed, police said.

“We're considering what burglary actually means, and we're looking at, does it mean he's potentially had a falling out with who's helping him?” Saunders said.

It could also simply mean he was “so brazen and confident” that he was “just happy” to commit a burglary in the middle of the night, Saunders added.

Phillips had attempted to rob the store before, in 2023, and would know that he would be captured on CCTV. He also showed a level of comfort in the burglary, spending 13 minutes at the store and taking time to scope out the building before breaking in.

The burglary was carried out with what police believe was a grinder, as sparks can be seen in the CCTV footage. Saunders said it was likely to be a stolen item.

One positive from the latest CCTV footage, experts said, was that it showed one of the children was relatively healthy.

The location

The grocery store in Piopio is a long way from Phillips’ home town of Marokopa, a 90-minute drive away on the state highway.

He and his child were travelling by quad bike, which indicated they might be based nearby.

Private investigator Chris Budge, who has taken an interest in the case, said it could mean the police need to cover a greater area in their searches.

“Using Marokopa as the centre of everything is probably a bit of a misdirection. What we can deduce is that his operation area is further south than what we anticipate.”

Saunders said police have always considered that Phillips was likely to be moving between multiple sites.

How could it end?

Burdett said he believed police had exhausted all traditional techniques and needed to consider a new approach. He suggested using an independent party to negotiate with Phillips, such as a family doctor or social worker.

Another approach, which he acknowledged would be a long shot, would be to place an undercover officer in the community, to try to find those who are supporting Phillips.

Budge has three theories on how Phillips will be caught: An accidental sighting by a member of the public when police are able to respond quickly; one of the children falling sick and needing healthcare; or one of Phillips’ supporters committing a crime and offering him up as a bargaining chip.

Police reiterated on Friday that they would not be enlisting specialist help, such as from NZ Specialist Air Service (NZSAS) members - citing reluctance for a confrontational approach.

Saunders said the police position remained the same: they wanted to sit down with the people helping Phillips and negotiate the return of the children.

Asked for a message for the fugitive, Saunders said: “Same as it’s always been - let’s get those children out safely.”