Government rejects plan to prevent landslides and save hundreds of millions

Wednesday, 4 February 2026

A plan to reduce erosion and landslides and save taxpayers and ratepayers hundreds of millions of dollars has been given the thumbs-down by the Government.

But its proponent, Gisborne District Council, hasn’t given up trying to convince the Government it’s the most logical and cheapest course of action.

The plan concerns the Gisborne/Tairāwhiti region - an area that has suffered huge economic and environmental damage in storms over recent years.

It is also pitched as a model for other regions and a means to avert further costly events by putting emphasis on prevention rather than reaction.

The 85-page Transition Programme Business Case - Land Use Transition in Tairāwhiti was 18 months in the making and saw Gisborne District Council bring together people and sectors from across the region.

These included the farming and forestry sectors, environmental groups, national and local regulators and scientists and experts from various fields.

These groups and individuals met, debated and refined a plan before reaching consensus late last year on “the pathway we need to take in order to shape a different future”.

The business case was submitted to the Government in November. It begins with a message from Mayor Rehette Stoltz.

Stoltz noted the region’s history, its peoples’ deep connection to the land, and the value of the land in its many uses, including farming, forestry and food production.

“Today, we are facing the consequences of that legacy. Decades of erosion-prone land use, layered upon a fragile and weathered geology, have left our region uniquely vulnerable” Stoltz said.

“Severe weather events now regularly expose the real cost of historical decisions through devastating floods, sediment-laden rivers and beaches blanketed in woody debris. The clean-up is visible. The cost is staggering. The social, environmental and cultural toll is growing. But our response is not despair. It is determination.”

The document states that action must be taken rapidly, and said that up to 100,000 hectares, or 12 per cent, of the region’s land should be transitioned into permanent vegetation cover (indigenous or exotic) in Indicative Transition Zones.

Alongside the costs suffered by the region (which in 2023-24 were put at $137m to the council, $482m to the Government and $450m to local primary sector businesses) the document points to the findings of a report last year that found that since 2010, New Zealand had incurred $64b in costs from natural hazards, at least $19b of which came from central government.

The research showed that 97% of the central government expenditure was on responding to and recovering from natural disasters, with only 3% spent on risk reduction and resilience.

The Gisborne business case states: “The figures make it clear: we cannot afford to remain reactive. International research shows that every $1 invested in risk reduction saves at least $4 in response and recovery. The case for proactive action has never been stronger.”

The total cost of the transition programme was put at $600m and the business case called for $359m from the Government over the first decade. The other $241m would come from the community, landowners and businesses, as well as national and international business and philanthropic organisations.

The plan says it would be the first of its kind in terms of scale and speed, and the region was innovating in areas such as pest control, soil science and environmental management using “leading-edge scientific research” that will be of use to other regions as climate change takes grip.

The document aimed to tackle major issues caused by extensive storm erosion, outlined in 2023’s Ministerial Inquiry into Land Use for the region.

The Ministerial Inquiry, titled 'Outrage to Optimism’ called for the establishment, within a decade, of a more sustainable approach, and found that lives and livelihoods were at risk without change, current land uses were unsustainable, community resilience levels were low and the forestry industry had lost its social licence to operate.

Tairāwhiti contains some of the most erosion-prone land in the country, with 60,000-100,000 hectares, or 10-15% of the entire region, classed as transition land, meaning it is too vulnerable for production forestry or intensive grazing without strategic erosion control plantings or the establishment of a permanent woody canopy cover.

The business case would see permanent vegetation cover established and maintained on the most at-risk land.

The council had hoped to discuss the plan with Cabinet early this year, with a view to securing funding in the May 2026 Budget.

If funding was approved, work on establishing the transition programme would have started in the second half of this year.

However, in mid-January Stoltz received a letter from Forestry Minister Todd McClay saying “the Government cannot commit to providing financial support for the business case at this stage”.

“As you are aware, New Zealand is in a challenging fiscal position… The Minister of Finance, Hon Nicola Willis has signalled that budget 2026 will focus on the delivery of core public services such as health, education, defence and law and order,” McClay wrote.

Jo Luxton, a Labour MP based on the East Coast, and the party’s agriculture spokesperson, wrote to McClay in late January - days after the Tairāwhiti region again suffered devastating and costly storm damage.

Luxton urged McClay to reconsider the Government’s position.

“Tairāwhiti, alongside other regions, is once again grappling with the impacts of a significant extreme weather event. Communities are reeling, property has been damaged and our critical transport link is closed,” Luxton wrote.

“By transitioning land use in a more sustainable way, we can materially reduce recurring clean-up costs which currently exceed $80m per major event. It would also help reduce the repeated need for road, bridge and infrastructure repairs.”

Luxton told Stuff she had not yet received a response, but said “I am committed to keeping this issue front and centre”.

“We cannot continue to accept these circumstances as our long-term future on the East Coast and I’m committed to working towards a bipartisan solution for the Tairāwhiti region.”

McClay was contacted for comment.

Stoltz said her council was “keeping conversations open with ministers and government agencies”.

“The recent weather events have again highlighted the need for us all to be proactive, and council is looking at opportunities to continue with the business case, which we intend on taking to the Government in the coming month,” she said.

Stoltz said the business case set out a “clear, evidence-based path to resilience” and showed the savings that could be made by investing in risk reduction.

“Each major storm simply reinforces the same point. Without change, our communities will continue to shoulder repeated clean-ups and mounting damage costs,” she said.

“Investing now is the responsible option so we can break the cycle rather than asking our people, both taxpayers and ratepayers, to pay for the same outcomes over and over again.”

Manu Caddie, spokesperson for local environmental group Mana Taiao Tairāwhiti said transition will happen, and “the question is whether it is managed and just or catastrophic”.

“The Minister’s decision to reject support for the Transition Business Case is deeply disappointing, but not surprising. It leaves Tairāwhiti exposed to ongoing risk while the costs of repeated weather disasters continue to fall on communities, councils and taxpayers,” he said.

“If central government won’t support a managed and just transition, Tairāwhiti must still act to protect communities, ratepayers and future generations - because the land and the climate are not waiting for Ministers to catch up.

“If Ministers choose not to support transition, they should be honest about the alternative: ongoing exposure to avoidable harm, repeated clean-ups, and growing pressure for public compensation.”