Covid hospitalisations climb as New Zealand enters new wave

Wednesday, 4 March 2026

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Covid deaths are rising again as New Zealand enters a ninth wave of the virus.

Covid-19 was probably our most impactful single infectious disease, causing 500-1000 deaths a year, compared to influenza, estimated to cause around 500, said Professor of public health at the University of Otago, Michael Baker.

“It’s still a serious disease with a big impact. It's probably our most consequential infectious disease still in New Zealand.”

Baker said wastewater testing and hospitalisations were the two data sources that indicated a new wave.

According to wastewater analysis from PHF Science (formerly ESR), the number of Covid-19 cases is at its highest for more than six months.

New Zealand was in its fifth year of the virus’ circulation, because the elimination strategy meant virtually no infection in 2020 and 2021, Baker said.

Through those five years, the main variant was Omicron and there were now sub-variants of that.

“When we see a rise in cases, we look to see if there's a new sub-variant that's driving it. It’s a variant that has evolved to be better at infecting us, better at getting past our immunity.

“We're not seeing that at the moment. That's suggesting the most likely driver of this wave is actually what we call waning immunity.”

People had been getting complacent about their boosters, and there hadn’t been a wave in a few months, so immunity was dropping, Baker said.

He expected the latest to last another month or two and getting a booster vaccine was still the best measure to take.

“If you're in a more vulnerable group, so older New Zealanders and those with underlying morbidity, chronic illnesses, you certainly should get a booster every six months to top up your protection.

“The other benefit is you don't want to get recurrent infections, because it increases your risk of long Covid, and the vaccine does protect you from that, not fully, but partially.

“So this is really a strong message that all New Zealanders who are eligible should go and get a booster at this stage,” Baker says.

Anecdotal reports suggest Covid cases surfaced following the Electric Avenue music festival in Christchurch, where 90,000 people packed into Hagley Park across two days last weekend.

Baker says large events can still fuel transmission, even when outdoors: “At a festival itself we wouldn't necessarily see much more transmission because most people are outdoors, but of course things associated with a festival, like bars and indoor environments after the event, shared transport and accommodation - that's where a virus spreads well.”

It has been six years since New Zealand’s first Covid wave and subsequent lockdowns. The final report from the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Covid-19 and the country’s pandemic response is expected next week.

The findings are likely to shape future public health planning as the virus continues to circulate at significant levels.

This story initially said there had been 19 Covid-19 deaths in the past week based on comments from Professor Michael Baker.

The Covid-19 dashboard reports deaths recorded in the previous 7 and 30 days. These figures do not necessarily represent deaths that occurred during those periods. Instead, they include deaths that occurred before 18 July 2025 but were added to the dataset and attributed to Covid-19 during the relevant reporting window.