Luxon appears to be the one with the only deciding vote on his future. For now.

Friday, 6 March 2026

ANALYSIS: Christopher Luxon has gone to ground, deciding to hole up and have a good hard think.

He was set to appear at the Auckland Boat Show on Sunday. That engagement was cancelled on Thursday morning, though his office says that has nothing to do with a truly terrible poll result.

A social media post showed that he popped along to a National SuperBlues meeting in Simeon Brown’s Pakuranga electorate on Friday morning. However, his office has been so cagey and protective that they wouldn’t say where he was.

According to the latest Taxpayers Union Curia poll, his party has the support of just 28.4% of respondents. National in the 20s. In government. That is truly untenable.

Political insiders have indicated to Stuff that the prime minister is shaken by today’s horror poll result, and he is taking some time to consider his options.

Which in and of itself is stunning to those who know Luxon well. He is a man who is very confident in his abilities, often-times to his detriment.

He is known to shirk advice from staff and even political veterans seeking to help him out, so sure he is in his own direction and management-style.

Luxon has spent his prime ministership maintaining that he’s running the Government differently, giving a long leash to ministers to manage their own portfolios.

And while, in corporate New Zealand, someone who delegates effectively and avoids micro-management might be seen as an asset, politics is not business.

On one hand this style of leadership allows him to sidestep responsibility for any curly questions, referring journalists to relevant ministers. On the other, it means he’s given himself licence not to be across his brief.

And let's be clear, the brief of a prime minister is everything, from the legality of strikes on Iran to the latest All Blacks coach.

It also leaves no one to point the finger at when the problem is the party’s popularity. That is the leader’s remit. Christopher Luxon needs to take some responsibility for this disaster poll.

Attributing the result to his very suboptimal performance at this week’s post-cabinet press conference may be a step too far. Polling started over the weekend, finishing on Tuesday. Luxon’s cringe-worthy conference would not have stretched far enough into wider public awareness to have an impact on this poll.

But it definitely reverberated through his caucus and the Beehive.

It's uncomfortable watching someone fail.

Not so uncomfortable that his deputy and finance minister, Nicola Willis, held her tongue when it came to describing the prime minister’s week.

“I don’t think its been a great week for the prime minister,” she said on Friday morning.

That is a devastating public statement from your 2iC.

Many more of his colleagues will have been squirming in their seats, just like the press gallery was, when they watched Luxon’s fumbling response to questions about New Zealand’s position on strikes on Iran.

But in that moment, Luxon himself did not seem to understand exactly what he had said, or why it would be a problem.

Despite attempts through questioning to explain to him that the word “any” substantially changed New Zealand’s position that actions to stop Iran having nukes were good, it took a post-presser briefing for Luxon to realise he’d misspoken. He then did a clean-up job the next day, but then repeated the mistake, again uttering that word, “any”.

Herein lies the problem: Luxon’s self-awareness of his struggles can appear lacking. It often takes someone explaining to him why he is having the problem. See, for example, his claiming of the accommodation allowance, or the Tesla discount he campaigned against.

After a week of reminders about the prime minister’s critical weakness, this poll result arrived. A result with a two in front of it. That is not good.

Simon Bridges was rolled as party leader after National scored 30.6% in a Newshub-Reid Research poll. Judith Collins torpedoed her leadership after the Nats crashed to 26.9% in the same poll. Of course, that was in opposition.

A Government comparison? Jim Bolger had National at 34% when Jenny Shipley rolled him.

And here’s where it gets serious. Behind the scenes, MPs have been saying things like ‘he has support for as long as he wants to do it’.

‘As long as he wants it’ - that puts the onus back on Luxon.

There is wide recognition that a bloody leadership coup could amount to a wipeout in November’s election. The public hates it when political parties focus internally and start talking about themselves. Especially with the way households are struggling with right now.

And even if that was not a factor, there is a vacuum of actors to undertake a challenge. The bloc who would normally have the power to put things in motion - the backbench - is not overly organised. There is much less political acumen among the newer intakes when compared to some of the backbenches of National past.

That’s not to say they have not noticed the poor performance. MPs have told me of heightened tension and disquiet this week, even before these numbers were well-known. They were getting squirmy even with the party in the early 30s - which is where, Stuff understands, National’s internal polls have them, at around 32%.

In Luxon’s favour there is no real concern about his ability to campaign. Whenever he is on the ground with people he is engaging and he showed in the 2023 election that he can handshake and cuddle babies till the cows come home.

If the campaign were closer this would put National in a better position, but he’s got many more storms to weather before that and there’s concern that the economy isn’t going to land him with something positive.

If he’s going to go it must be a managed transition.

That presents a new challenge. There is no obvious successor and differing views among caucus as to who can get them out of the hole.

Chris Bishop tried and failed to win support for a challenge.

Willis is a very astute operator and could comfortably debate her way through a campaign, though there may be concern her brand is too tied to Luxon’s.

Erica Stanford has long been talked about, but is more popular publicly than among her parliamentary team-mates. Stuff understands, though, that she has taken some advice from a master of political manoeuvres, former foreign minister Murray McCully.

Perennial leadership contender Mark Mitchell has shown himself as a very good communicator in times of crisis. He is also relatable to everyday Kiwis. But Mitchell is a Luxon loyalist who’d never move against him, so a space would likely need to open for him to throw himself in the ring.

The potential prospect of a prime minister questioning their own ability is very hard to come back from. Once the public cotton on to that, these things tend to take on a life of their own and the questions and commentary will not let up.

Luxon appears to be the one with the only deciding vote on his future. For now.