What could fuel rationing look like? Five options for a NZ response
Thursday, 12 March 2026
The war in Iran and ensuing turmoil for the global oil supply has led to calls to proactively implement some form of fuel rationing.
MBIE data from Monday showed New Zealand had a 58-day supply of petrol, 50 days of diesel, and 47 days of jet fuel, meaning 43 days as of today.
While a further supply to the country was on its way, Stuff reported earlier on Thursday that we may already be down to 17 or 18 days of jet fuel left by the time it arrives.
Associate Minister for Energy Shane Jones said there was “no need to panic”, but others were suggesting an early response may be beneficial.
Engineering consultant Nathan Surendran, chairperson of Wise Response Society - a broad coalition dedicated to assessing and responding to risks arising from climate change and economic insecurity, told Stuff there was cause for a response, and there was a broad range of options the Government could take to ration fuel.
Option 1: Maintain the status quo
Surendran said the first option could be what was already happening - a sort of price rationing.
“So you imagine there’s a drought and the water supply is running low,” he said.
“Instead of putting everyone on restricted hours, the council just lets the price of water triple.
“The family with a swimming pool keeps it full, while the family on a benefit can’t afford to do laundry.”
Petrol prices in Aotearoa were already starting to hit the $3 mark. Allied Fuel Whataroa in the South Island told Stuff its 91 unleaded petrol had hit $3.089 per litre on Thursday.
G.A.S Ahipara in Northland had hit $3.08 per litre, and G.A.S Ōmāpere had hit $3.24.
A photo sent in to Stuff showed 91 unleaded at Glacier Motors in Franz Joseph was being advertised at $3.099.
Option 2: Voluntary demand restraint
Voluntary demand restraint is the National Fuel Plan’s early stage response. Surendran said this was an option for the Government to signal that rationing was potentially on the table.
He said an example would be councils telling people to use less water during droughts.
“People will [listen and follow], but most won’t as there’s no consequence and no fairness mechanism,” he said.
Option 3: Mandatory demand restraint
Children and adults of the 70s may remember having car-less days - a journey the nation has been on before.
The last time Aotearoa had to ration petrol was from 1979 to 1980, during the Fuel Crisis.
The Iranian Revolution that year caused a drop in oil production, causing a global energy crisis.
Oil prices tripled and petrol in New Zealand jumped from about 10 cents to more than 60 cents per litre.
By July 1979, the government introduced car-less days, banning drivers from using cars on particular days.
Anyone caught breaking the rule faced a $400 fine — about $2500 in today’s money.
Surendran - referring again to the water analogy - said it was like “the council saying no watering your garden on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Simple and enforceable, but crude”.
“The family with four cars just picks a different car each day.
“The single car household genuinely loses mobility, and a farmer who needs a vehicle 7 days a week is stuck.”
Option 4: Wartime-era coupon system
If you grew up during WWII, you might remember the strict rationing of food. Rationing books were assigned with coupons to purchase goods.
Surendran said moving to this option would mean households get a fixed amount, and can’t buy more until the next allocation.
Option 5: Trade-able Energy Quotas
The fifth option was an idea called trade-able energy quotas, an allocation system designed by British economist Dr David Fleming.
An independent body would set a national energy budget - a total amount of fuel NZ can use within a particular time period.
Every adult receives an equal, free weekly allocation of TEQs units to an electronic account, like a bus card, Surendran said. This would use 40% of the budget.
The remaining 60% would be auctioned off weekly between businesses, government agencies, hospitals, farms, etc.
When you buy fuel, the units are deducted from accounts automatically.
Stuff has contacted major public transport carriers around the country regarding contingency plans.
Wellington’s Metlink said they were working with their operators to monitor any potential fuel impacts that occur as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.
“Should shortages become an issue, we will take direction from MBIE on a nationally coordinated approach and keep our passengers informed if any service changes are needed,” senior manager for Commercial Partnerships Lisa Rossiter said.
CLARIFICATION: This article has been updated to clarify how there could be 17-18 days left of jet fuel supply by the time the next delivery arrives.