No longer the ‘golden ticket’: Kiwis look to come home from Australia as economic tide turns

Saturday, 4 July 2026

41,100 New Zealanders moved to Australia in 2025, up only slightly from the previous year.

12,800 Kiwis returned last year, a 14% increase on 2024.

Economists say Australia's slowing economy and New Zealand's improving outlook are expected to narrow the migration gap in the years ahead.

Kiwis say higher living costs and tougher job markets mean Australia is no longer the financial “golden ticket” it once was.

The financial allure that’s drawn New Zealanders across the Tasman in record numbers appears to be fading amid Australia’s economic downturn.

Data from both sides of the Ditch reveals a subtle shift in the classic Anzac migration story - and economists say it’s no blip.

Figures from Stats NZ showed that the number of Kiwis leaving for Australia is still rising, but only just, from 40,600 in 2024 to 41,100 in 2025.

And there’s been a surge in the number returning - 12,800 last year, a 14% increase from 2024.

Paul Bloxham, HSBC chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, believes the shift is likely to continue.

For a long time, the economic narrative heavily favoured Australia, but that dynamic is flipping, Bloxham says.

“The Australian economy right now is in a downswing, while the New Zealand economy is in an upswing.

“People vote with their feet,” Bloxham notes, pointing to a distinct shift in momentum that is convincing Kiwis “not to leave… they decide to stay instead or, in fact, make choices to come home.”

Are you a Kiwi living in Australia and thinking of moving back? Or have you already returned? Share your story with annemarie.quill@stuffdigital.co.nz

Australia’s slowing economy means “less job creation” and fewer opportunities, Bloxham says.

He believes that’s a consequence of the Royal Bank of Australia lifting interest rates three times this year to get inflation under control.

Meanwhile, tax changes have weakened the housing market, particularly in the cities popular with Kiwi expats.

Nick Brundson, principal economist at economic consultancy Infometrics, agrees the job market is the biggest driver of change.

“New Zealand’s labour market is set to improve while Australia’s gets worse. By 2029 we expect the unemployment rate to be similar on both sides of the Tasman, which usually leads to lower losses of New Zealand citizens through migration.”

The “general slowing in the Australian economy” includes softer construction and mining activity, “two industries which are often key attractors for Kiwis moving across the ditch,” Brundson says.

“Kiwis will find it harder to find a job in Australia as their unemployment rate rises, so fewer will look to make the move, and more are likely to come home.”

Time in Oz had ‘run its course’

One of those who came home is Jamie Hartwell. She moved back to Christchurch in January after 10 years in Queensland.

“It’s changed,” Hartwell says. “It’s not easy to make it there any more. Too many people are after the same thing. Many Kiwis talk about moving back.”

Her time across the Tasman was a stepping stone that had “run its course”.

“We're lucky that we owned a house. If we were renting, we would have been homeless as rent has shot up.”

Hartwell said jobs were getting harder to come by in Australia, but her husband, an industrial electrician, walked straight into a well-paying job in New Zealand.

Although he now earns $45 an hour, compared to A$55 in Australia, the “rising cost of everything” across the Tasman “would eat up that difference”, Hartwell says.

“People just think about wages, but there are lots of costs … I don’t think people weigh it all up.”

“Kiwis thinking that Australia is the answer would be shocked. It’s not the dream.”

No longer the ‘golden ticket’

After 35 years in Australia, 52-year-old signage worker Tim Jacobsen is considering a return to New Zealand, believing Australia is no longer the “golden ticket”.

“I’ve met young fellas that come over and already they regret it and talk about going back.

“There are hidden costs people don’t realise. My sister told me about her $280 car registration fee there. I said, try a thousand bucks a year [in Australia]… plus you spend more in fuel as it’s so far to go anywhere.”

Currently living near Newcastle, New South Wales, he is drawn back to the Tasman region.

“I can be mortgage-free going back to Nelson, and my wife can give up work,” he said.

“In a nutshell, for me, it's quality of life - and that’s better in New Zealand.”