Protest presents a diabolical challenge for PM
Wednesday, 16 February 2022
Ben Thomas is a public relations consultant and political commentator. He is a former National government press secretary, and is part of the Gone By Lunchtime podcast.
OPINION: It has been noted that the current anti-vaccination and mandates protest and occupation around Parliament presents a severe disruption to the daily life of the everyday residents of Wellington: that is, politicians and their strategists.
This is not because the protesters have wide support. They represent a vanishingly small part of the electorate. But like a mosquito in the bedroom – noisy, insistent, quite probably carrying disease – they present a diabolical challenge for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.
Ardern will be taking a moment to glance at the experience of her almost-contemporary, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, in the face of the trucking convoy protests that were a blueprint for the Wellington action. Public approval of his performance on the protests is through the floor.
There are certainly many differences between the two situations: the Canadian protest has created genuine logistical disruption throughout the country rather than disabling a few city blocks; New Zealanders are possibly even less sympathetic to anti-vaxxers than Canadians, and it’s almost impossible to imagine Ardern in as cartoonishly and cowardly a disappearing act as Trudeau when his convoy arrived. However, risk abounds.
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Among the conspiracy theorists, grifters and extremists of the protest, some of the quieter and more sympathetic elements are a reminder of the fallout from the Government’s rushed implementation of the traffic light system, and in particular vaccine passes and mandates.
A former nurse who had avoided a shot because of her immunocompromised position could justifiably feel failed by the hurried and broad-brush mandate and exemption framework, which has left a small, if non-trivial, number of people excluded through no fault of their own.
(It should be noted, though, that people with pre-existing immune conditions were equally failed by the more ideological opponents of Covid regulations, who earlier rendered the system for mask-wearing exemptions unworkable through co-opting easily accessible passes intended for people with disabilities, and would undoubtedly do the same with vaccine passes given the chance.)
Even the conspiracy theorists whose thoughts turn not to violence but to a terrifying imaginary world of shadowy cabals, deadly vaccines and nanotechnology are victims – in their case, of misinformation, which spread quickly in early 2021 while the Government stalled on its vaccine rollout to avoid creating excessive demand.
Nevertheless, if contempt for the protesters runs high, there is a strong principle in politics that being humbled by losers makes you the biggest loser of all. If a government is trying to project managerial competence, it can’t really have staff working from home in parliament and local shops overrun by people flouting public health orders.
But at their most basic level, the protests present a problem for Ardern because she and her Government are trying very hard to move on from a monomaniacal concentration on Covid-19.
At her post-Cabinet press conference Ardern anticipated a return to relative normality even as the outbreak surged, because of the less serious consequences of illness for the vast majority of double-vaccinated and boosted New Zealanders.
Livestreams and obsessive reporting of protesters, the fetid Woodstock-style festival blocking access to and from Parliament, and the ever more farcical interventions of Speaker Trevor Mallard, make it much harder to move the narrative on.
Ardern finds herself somewhat hamstrung, however. She rightly points out she cannot direct police operations, and as her predecessor Helen Clark once sighed, no-one can direct Mallard. Her own options are limited.
Despite calls for engagement with the occupiers from ACT leader David Seymour, there can be no meetings between the Government, or the Speaker, and the protesters. What demands have been released by organisers or protest factions include repealing all public health regulation relating to Covid-19, hardly a realistic, or genuine, request. There is nothing to negotiate.
Even if there was, official engagement would be out of the question. Breaking the law should never be seen as a viable way to ensure an appointment with political leaders.
Ardern’s 2023 rival Christopher Luxon has had a much more relaxed start to the year. He finds himself in the enviable position of being able to talk tough on law and order, and speak reasonably and disapprovingly about the convoy, while admitting in so many words he would be as constrained as Ardern in office.
This week he avoided committing to a firm position on whether National supported the forthcoming minimum wage increase, musing about timing but refusing to back or bag a decision that, in any case, National MPs will not get to vote on in parliament.
It’s a much more relaxed start than his predecessors, and will help Luxon avoid the pitfalls of committing too quickly to opposing Government measures with over a year and a half to polling day. Like the protesters who this week get to enjoy Wellington’s fabled “good days” in the sun, Luxon realises time is on his side.