Covid-19: unprecedented and unfinished
Tuesday, 17 May 2022
Sir Peter Gluckman is president of the Paris-based International Science Council and the director of Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures at the University of Auckland.
OPINION: Who isn’t over Covid by now? With our prime minister and her household presently contending with the virus, surely we can say it has just about run its course? If only.
Although the pandemic’s peak intensity in this country may have passed, it is reportedly having a resurgence across the Tasman, South Africa and many other countries. Clearly, Covid-19 is far from beaten.
This week, the International Science Council (ISC), of which I’m president, has released a report assessing the global community’s response to the pandemic and looking ahead as its effects continue to reverberate. Prepared with many experts worldwide, including fellow New Zealanders Sir David Skegg and Dr Anne Bardsley, it records notable successes – particularly first-generation vaccine development – and many causes for ongoing concern. These extend well beyond the virus’ direct implications for people’s health
The pandemic, for all the sickness and death it has visited on the planet, has also wrought other disastrous consequences. It is also an inequality crisis, not only within communities, but also in whole regions of the globe, affecting economies, development, the environment and society and diverting geopolitical attention. Covid’s echoes will last for many years and will be heard in every part of society and across the globe. It would be a terrible mistake if policymakers underestimated these long-term implications.
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Some countries have stood out in their response, but many others have prolonged the pandemic by treating it as a national rather than global emergency and allowing politics to override the evidence. The poor global response has been compounded by a lack of integrated scientific input across disciplines extending well beyond epidemiology.
Underlying these shortcomings was the apparent inability of the existing world order – the multilateral system – to co-ordinate effectively with the scientific community to limit the pandemic’s long-term impact.
In economic terms, in 2020 more than 8% of working hours were lost, equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs. And lost education could potentially reduce the lifetime earnings of a generation of students by as much as $17 trillion globally.
Rich countries failed at bringing science to bear in poor countries. And as time has gone on, even in some high-income countries, science has lost ground to disinformation and politicisation, highlighting the need to strengthen advice systems to increase trust in science as a safeguard against acute health risks, the pandemic’s broader implications and the breakdown of social cohesion.
Governments must not pretend that the crisis is over just because fewer people are dying. For many people, there will be years of difficulties and challenges ahead.
In the lifetime of a virus, this one has only recently been transmitted to humans, we can assume it will keep evolving in uncertain ways. The large numbers of immunocompromised and unvaccinated people – especially in the Global South – add to the opportunities for ongoing mutations. Over time the virus will become endemic, with the potential for outbreaks of more virulent forms. Vaccines will need continued updating until vaccinology develops more universal protection.
In producing this report, Unprecedented and Unfinished – Covid-19 and Implications for National and Global Policy” , the ISC’s purpose was fourfold. First, to bring home to the policy community and citizens the wide-ranging global effects of Covid and to make the point strongly that its implications will extend broadly and for a long time after the pandemic is brought under control. Second, the evolution of the pandemic will continue to be heavily influenced by the uptake of effective vaccines . Third, policymakers must not take a narrow view and regard the pandemic as being over just because mortality in any one country is falling. They must lay out a path to more positive and fair outcomes for communities and societies – because it has increased inequality and has many other worrisome socioeconomic impacts. Fourth, we must learn and understand how the experiences of the past 29 months informs planning for and responses to other existential crises, be they pandemics, natural disasters or the effects of climate change.
It is clear the multilateral system needs to find a way to operate more effectively for the global good. The science community, by bringing its weight to bear on vaccine development, demonstrated the power of global co-operation; but the global policy community was perhaps less effective.
The multilateral system is not fit for purpose to handle the major crises that loom – be it a pandemic, climate change or conflict. Even at the most obvious level, the multilateral system was found wanting. Neither the United Nations Security Council nor the General Assembly gave sufficient urgency to the pandemic and geopolitical interests clearly delayed part of the early World Health Organisation responses.
One critical element of reform is depoliticising science and countering disinformation. All countries need to strengthen their science advice ecosystems and the UN has to be better at putting science to work to protect societies from major risks.
To ensure a resilient and more equitable future, we must find ways that embolden effective international collaboration in addressing global threats. This report aims to assist all governments in exploring appropriate responses in the broad interests of all their citizens and societies.