Soft-on-crime charge stings Labour in polls

Friday, 10 June 2022

Jacinda Ardern and Anthony Albanese discussed Australia’s deportation policy and Albanese later acknowledged that “concerns have been raised that need to be taken into consideration”.

Janet Wilson is a freelance journalist until recently working in PR, including a stint with the National Party. She contributes a column weekly.

OPINION: There are many factors that drive voters, but fear and anxiety are the most corrosive.

Research shows that fear makes voters more attentive to detail while anxiety increases political attentiveness, often at the expense of party affiliation. Twenty-five drive-by shootings around the country in the past two weeks is the latest iteration of that fear and anxiety as law and order emerges as a strong voter concern.

That concern was highlighted this week with the 2022 Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor. Crime/law came in as the fifth most important issue facing the country, the highest since Ipsos began tracking in 2018. Anxiety around crime was higher for those aged above 50 at 40%, with those below at 23%.

Months of headlines which focused on topics ranging from gangsters being shot in the face to police standoffs and the ongoing war between the Killer Beez and the Tribesmen, have established crime’s antidote, law and order, as a striking counterpoint between Labour and National.

* Person critically injured after shooting in Papakura, police investigating

National Party leader Christopher Luxon wants a unit of police officers whose sole focus is gangs.

* Nineteen gang members arrested across Auckland after two weeks of shootings

* Gang crackdown to focus on 'enforcement', police minister says

* Police plan major nationwide crackdown on gangs

* National promises tougher stance on gangs, youth offenders

Poto Williams has lost the Police portfolio. (File photo)

There’s no doubt that National’s “soft on crime” charge to Labour, delivered via its police spokesman Mark Mitchell, has smarted. Which is why there was a joint $550 million in funding announced in May’s Budget for more police, a new package to tackle organised crime and a $208m firearms unit.

A promised ramraids plan was less plan, more promise, with no funding attached to it. It was, though, Labour’s acknowledgement of that fear and anxiety which is gripping communities.

On Monday both parties were keen to impress that they were getting on with providing solutions to the problem, providing, instead of promises, proposals and, in the process, indulging in political kite-flying.

Mitchell suggested that the anti-consorting bikie laws across the ditch, enacted in Queensland and Western Australia, should be considered here.

Janet Wilson: “A promised ramraids plan was less plan, more promise, with no funding attached to it.”

In Queensland, gang members can’t wear insignia, not only patches but T-shirts and rings. In WA gang insignia covers facial tattoos. Which forced the prime minister and her police minister into revealing that asset seizures were being looked at but “we’re not quite ready” to announce it, suggesting maybe they would soon. Maybe.

Mitchell’s enthusiastic embracing of the Aussie way was slapped down by National Party leader Christopher Luxon. A ban could be explored, he said, but there would need to be evidence to see whether it was effective.

Mitchell’s ardour for Australian police practices continued later that day, when he dusted off a National Party policy of yore – Strike Force Raptor – anointing it with a new name, Resolute.

If National’s police spokesman is happy to retread a policy roundly criticised when first introduced three years ago, the party has only been allowed to do so due to the fear and anxiety zeitgeist.

But Mitchell’s persistent questioning of Police Minister Poto Williams over police call-out times, and his criticism that the Budget didn’t give police increased powers to deal with gangs, have contributed to the perception that National is seen as the party most capable of managing the issue, as the Ipsos poll confirmed.

Reinforcing Labour’s “soft on crime” label is its 2018 promise to reduce the prison population by 30% within 15 years. While it has been successful – the prison population is at its lowest since 2008 – it has enabled National to effectively portray Labour as not being concerned about people’s safety.

Which is why much was riding on Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s visit to meet her old mate Albo, Anthony Albanese, the newly installed Australian prime minister, this week.

Central to discussions was the prickly issue of the 501s, the deportation of Kiwis sent back to their homeland, on legal or spurious character grounds. Much of the rhetoric around crime has been attributed to the increasing disruption the 501s have created in New Zealand gangs.

The result, while not immediate, was nevertheless a win for the prime minister and characterised the reset both leaders emphasised. While Albanese reiterated that section 501 would be maintained, he confirmed that he had listened to Ardern and committed to working “through the implementation of the way that section 501 has been dealt with” ahead of the two leaders’ next meeting. Albanese sealed the reset by acknowledging that “concerns have been raised that need to be taken into consideration, as friends.”

With law and order firmly back on the national agenda, it gives National another arrow to fire at the Government, a point reinforced by the Ipsos poll.

Of the top 20 issues worrying Kiwis, National was viewed as a more capable manager than Labour of eight of them, while there were three issues, transport, immigration and defence, where both parties were seen as equally competent.

It’s a striking shift from June 2021 when Labour was seen as managing 19 of the 20 issues better than National. Sixteen months out from the election what will drive voters’ intentions is becoming apparent.