PM may want to get his elbows out over Treaty Principles Bill

Friday, 9 February 2024

Luxon's impressive verbal acrobatics continue over changing stance on the Treaty Principles Bill

Tova O’Brien is Stuff’s Chief Political Correspondent and host of the political podcast, Tova. You can catch the special Waitangi episode here.

ANALYSIS: At first it seemed like Winston Peters was going to come out on top of the weird three-way handshake turned three-way arm wrestle for supremacy between the coalition leaders.

With a wave of his wand he appeared to force a mea culpa from National after it changed a coalition promise for more cops, his associate health minister also continued to explore tobacco tax cuts despite the prime minister ruling it out and don’t forget that incredible power play during the post-election negotiations - when Peters stood Christopher Luxon up in Wellington, forcing the PM to fly back to Auckland.

It made sense given Peters’ political pedigree versus Luxon’s relative inexperience.

Veteran politician Winston Peters during the Government’s big coalition announcement.

But lo! Who’s this?

Not to be outdone, David Seymour - like an unassuming pool shark coming up from the rear - has shown, he too, is a deft hand at political machinations.

After weeks and weeks and weeks of saying, “there is no intention or commitment” to support ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill beyond the first reading but doggedly refusing to actually rule it out, Luxon finally, unequivocally, said National would not support it beyond select committee even if there’s an enormous public groundswell.

Rather than shrug his shoulders in defeat over the sudden change of heart and language, Seymour capitalised.

David Seymour says the PM got “a bit nervous” at Waitangi.

“I think potentially he got a bit nervous coming out of Waitangi, he thought he could make the issue go away,” Seymour told Stuff.

If that’s the case, tough luck Luxon. By shifting his stance, then he may have only served to give the issue a whole new lease of life.

Seymour even went so far as to say he doesn’t believe the prime minister when he says he won’t capitulate to public pressure.

“Every politician in a democracy has to listen to the public” he told Stuff. “ No PM in history has really not cared what the public think.”

That’s one of Luxon’s co-deputy prime ministers saying they don’t believe the prime minister.

Asked if he was undermining the PM, Seymour said, “No, I simply think it’s the best explanation for the timing [of Luxon’s shift in position].”

Christopher Luxon, Winston Peters and David Seymour on the Waitangi Treaty Grounds.

A shift that Luxon is insisting is not a shift at all.

The prime minister is steadfastly arguing nothing has changed, that there is no difference between “no intention or commitment to support” and “will not support”.

It’s a bit cute but you have to respect the time honoured tradition of politicians’ pushing the boundaries of semantic wriggle room (see video above for more).

And in an added twist to this latest coalition saga, Luxon’s other co-deputy is coming to his defence.

Where Seymour is addressing the clear change of stance and thus validating its existence, Winston Peters - like Luxon - is also insisting there’s no such thing.

Winston Peters says Christopher Luxon did not change his stance.

Asked by Stuff in Rarotonga, where Foreign Minister Peters is leading a parliamentary mission across three Pacific countries, he denied Luxon had pivoted position:

“No, he didn't, he ruled it out from day in, day out, month in, month out, all the way in the campaign and here you are hum-dinging along on this old, tired saw.”

Hecontinued, “He said it during the campaign, after the campaign, during the coalition talks, after the coalition talks. And why can't some of you journalists get up to date rather than banging on a drum that is so retarded, so beaten up it’s not even worth saluting.”

Peters acknowledged it was a long answer but said he was “horrified” he was being asked about it on a trip which was supposed to be focused on the Pacific.

His horror and indignation perhaps explaining why he momentarily forgot which of the Pacific island countries they were in.

“You came here, all the way… Where are we?” asked Peters before answering himself, “We are in the Cook Islands, all the way across the sea, with a misnomer and now that you’ve been told something else you’re switching to us. That's not gonna happen.”

So Seymour says there was a change in stance, therefore undermining Luxon’s position; Luxon says there absolutely was not a change, therefore undermining Seymour’s in return. Peters is team Luxon this time round and by extension he’s also undermining Seymour.

But when there clearly has been a change in language, simply arguing two against one won’t fly. This round goes to Seymour.

For a government just two and a half months old it feels like there’s been a lot of undermining, defending, position changing, posturing; maybe that’s just part of bedding in a three-way coalition and working out the pecking order.

If that’s the case, then the prime minister - the guy elected with way, way, way more votes than those other two - may want to get his elbows out and start jostling for pole position lest the struggle persist for the entirety of his term.