New Zealand on track to meet greenhouse gas emission targets - except for methane
Monday, 8 April 2024
The high-uptake of electric vehicles means New Zealand could be on track to meet its net-zero carbon goal for all greenhouse gasses except methane, the Climate Commission suggests.
Its report, released on Monday, looks at the policies and strategies which could bring the country closer to its net-zero target. One of its scenarios, based on policies as of July 1 when Labour was in government, found gross emissions of all greenhouse gases other than biogenic methane would be on track to be carbon neutral by 2042. One of the main contributors was the uptake of electric vehicles.
However its assessment was based on policies under the former Labour government and won’t allay fears the National-led coalition government has watered down the response to climate change after it axed a number of carbon-cutting initiatives.
Dr Rodd Carr, chair of the Climate Commission, said the government had some key decisions to make, but said there were many opportunities in the green transition.
“These things won't happen on their own because the transition is going to occur. The question is do we want it to happen at a pace that we can manage under our control, or do we want it to turn up expensive and late?”
Why it matters
The Climate Commission released its draft advice and ambitious new carbon targets for its fourth emissions budget, which covers 2036 to 2040, on Monday.
The advice, now out for consultation, forms part of how the Government will meet its net-zero carbon goal by 2050. Failure to do so will hinder international efforts to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The first three emissions budgets, each covering a five-year period, were released in May 2022.
The report models scenarios where households and businesses either fundamentally change the way they live and work, or better use technological advancements, such as electric vehicles, to lower emissions.
The breakdown
The draft advice suggests the fourth emissions budget should be set at 134 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent. The budgets are staggered, and each is lower than the previous one.
The Commission on Monday also revised down the targets for the first three budgets; the first because the commission had more accurate accounting of some emissions, while the second and third budgets were changed because more trees had also been planted than projected, so there was more carbon dioxide being sucked from the atmosphere than initially forecast.
But the commission warned a more balanced approach is needed to reduce net green house gas emissions in the years to come, without relying on the planting of exotic trees.
The government next has to make an emissions reduction plan in order to meet the emissions budget, before December 31.
It has yet to present its plan to meet the emissions budget for 2026 to 2030, Carr said, so the fiscal implications of its policy programme won’t come out for another year.
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has promised a number of carbon-intensive policies, such as 15 new four-lane highways, called roads of national significance.
The Commission was also seeking input as to whether it should include emissions from international shipping and aviation in the 2050 target. It found this would be consistent with its approach so far, but was asking the public and stake holders for their views.
Carr said the Commission had rough estimates of the cost of doing so, but that it would not blow out the budget.
However, the advice also warned that electricity demand is expected to increase by 59% before 2050, as a result of the green transition. This is forecast to put huge pressure on the system, and between two and three new wind farms would need to be built each year to meet the demand.
The draft advice also made a number of assumptions, including that oil gas will be phased out by 2050, more people will be walking and cycling and using public transport, and that all light vehicles entering the fleet would be electric by 2040 - with petrol and diesel imports fully phased out.
Light vehicles make up 64% of total transport emissions and the Commission had previously called for petrol and diesel cars imports to be banned by 2032.
It assumes farmers would have reduced their stock rates by 23% for dairy, and 12% for sheep and beef by 2050, and that new and emerging methane reduction technologies will have been taken up. Agricultural emissions, now making up 51% of total emissions, would reduce by 24%.
Carr said there was variation in the quality of production between dairy herds, and their environmental impacts. He said there were opportunities for farmers to improve their breeding, feeding, and farm management practices.