Where the Treaty debate could end up

Wednesday, 20 November 2024

Te Pāti Māori is making a strong pitch to voters with hopes outrage over David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill will fuel an unprecedented level of political engagement, cement the party’s future, and create more Māori seats in Parliament.

Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke - a Te Pati Māori MP who has become a worldwide sensation after leading the Opposition in Ka Mate haka - spoke to an estimated 42,000 protesters from Parliament’s forecourt for Te Hīkoi mō te Tiriti, where she implored people to register on the Māori roll.

The number of Māori electoral districts varies according to the proportion of Māori who choose to be on the separate Māori electoral roll.

“Go on your phone for two minutes and register on the Māori roll,” she said. “Because if every single Māori person registered on the Māori roll, we would have 20 automatic Māori seats here in Parliament.”

The nine-day Hīkoi - which was affiliated with Te Pati Māori - was estimated to be one of the largest political protests in decades. It formed against ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill, which seeks to reinterpret the Treaty and the legislation that upholds Māori rights.

Turnout for Tuesday’s hīkoi exceeded the organisers’ expectations.

Te Pati Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi spoke and led the crowd in chanting “kill the bill”. Tamatha Paul, from the Greens, and Labour’s Peeni Henare also spoke against the bill.

ACT’s counter-pitch

Seymour also used the protest to sharpen his message to voters. In a video, created by his staff, the ACT Party leader and MPs watch the protest from behind a police line.

Seymour said he wanted to speak to the crowd, but was not able to, because “if they were to hear from the real me, rather than the caricature they have constructed, they would be disappointed”.

Seymour has pitched himself as speaking for all New Zealanders.

Last month he pointed to Curia poll, published by pollster David Farrar, which showed 46% in support of the bill’s proposed principles as agreed by Cabinet, compared to 25% opposed and 29% unsure. The Curia poll of 958 New Zealanders was taken from October 3 to October 7.

The referendum question

While the bill is almost certain to fail at its second reading, without National and NZ First’ support, Alexander Gillespie from the University of Waikato said ACT may be able to use the political upheaval and angst sparked as the bill to generate enough public interest to initiate a referendum.

“The bill will fail, but the question is what will happen next,” Gillespie, a law professor, said.

Seymour campaigned on a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi’s principles, but he was only able to get National and NZ First to support a bill to select committee in coalition negotiations.

If the bill does pass its next vote - which is not expected - there would be a referendum campaign before a nationwide vote.

There could also be a citizens-initiated referendum, if 10% of the population enrolled to vote sign a petition supporting a referendum question.

Select committee pressure

Public submissions on the bill opened on Tuesday, and will close on January 7. The bill is due to take the typical six-month select committee process, which means it will still be a hot political issue until mid-2025.

This means it is likely to be a political issue when the prime minister, Christopher Luxon, meets with Māori leaders at Rātana, a small pā near Whanganui, in late January as part of annual celebrations, and at Waitangi in February.

Suze Jones, Deputy Clerk of the House, said the justice committee would have extra support for the bill, which is expected to draw a huge amount of submissions, but extra staff weren’t being hired at this stage.