Labour ahead of National in first political poll of the year

Friday, 17 January 2025

Labour is ahead of National in the latest Taxpayers Union-Curia Poll.

This is the first time Labour has had a lead over National in this poll in nearly two years.

The coalition government, however, would still be able to govern based on the latest numbers.

The Labour Party will be celebrating a happy new year with the first poll of 2025 putting them ahead of National.

The new Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll shows National down 4.6 points to 29.6%, with Labour rising 4 points from the last poll, overtaking them with 30.9%.

This is the first time Labour has led National in this poll since April 2023, nearly two years ago, when Labour enjoyed a leadership bounce after Chris Hipkins replaced Jacinda Ardern.

The Greens are up 1.2 points to 9.5%, while ACT is down 2.2 points to 10.8%.

New Zealand First is up 2.7 points to 8.1%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.2% to 5.3%.

Based on these results, seats in the House would see National down six seats to 38, with Labour gaining five seats to 39.

The Greens would gain one seat to 12, while ACT would drop three to 14 seats.

New Zealand First would pick up 3 seats to 10, and Te Pati Maori would remain on seven seats.

This means the centre-right coalition would be down six seats to 62, still enough to govern, while the combined seats for the centre-left bloc would be up by six to 58.

The poll was conducted between January 9 and 13 and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%.