Third major poll shows more support for Opposition than Government

Monday, 10 February 2025

All three major political polls are now showing the Opposition has more support than the Government.

In three consecutive polls, support for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's government has dropped. According to these results, a slim majority of voters want a change of Government.

The latest result, from the 1News Verian poll on Monday, showed support for the Government had fallen and the centre-left could form a government if an election was held today.

Labour jumped four points to 33%, while National fell three points to 34%. Te Pāti Māori also dropped significantly, down three points to 4%. NZ First and ACT shifted by around one point each, and the Green Party remained steady.

The poll also saw a drop in Christoper Luxon as the preferred prime minister. Down two points to 22%, it was his worst result in a year and a half, according to 1News. Chris Hipkins was up two points at 17%, while other leaders remained steady.

Chlöe Swarbrick and David Seymour were both on 6%, Winston Peters on 5% and Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke on 1%.

Why it matters

The 1News Verian poll on Monday was the third consecutive political poll that showed the centre left bloc had overtaken the centre right.

Earlier on Monday, the Taxpayers Union-Curia poll showed the Opposition with a thin lead over the three governing parties.

Although National’s support had grown since the last Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll in January, the two coalition parties - ACT and NZ First - had lost support. Labour and the Greens’ support had grown.

Last week, Talbot Mills’ poll for corporate clients showed - for the first time this term - that the Opposition parties had more support than the coalition.

Political opinion has soured this year. In both the January and February Taxpayers Union polls, more people thought the country was heading in the “wrong” direction.

By the numbers

The 1News Verian poll showed:

• National, down three points to 34%.

• Labour jumped four points to 33%.

• The Green Party remained steady at 10%.

• ACT, up one point to 9%.

• NZ First, down 1.25 points, sitting at 5%.

• And Te Pāti Māori, down three points to 4%.

• Luxon down 2 points to 22% as preferred PM

• Hipkins up 2 points to 17% as preferred PM

The Taxpayers Union-Curia poll showed:

• National, up 2.3 points to 31.9%.

• Labour, up 0.4 points to 31.3%.

• The Greens, up 3.7 points to 13.2%.

• ACT, down 0.8 points to 10%.

• NZ First, down 1.7 points to 6.4%%.

• And Te Pāti Māori, down 0.9 points to 4.4%.

• Luxon down 3.8 points to 20.7% as preferred PM

• Hipkins up 2.3 points to 17.6% as preferred PM