Poll shows Labour ahead of National, Hipkins ahead of Luxon as preferred PM

Monday, 10 March 2025

Christopher Luxon discusses his focus on economic recovery and policies aimed at improving New Zealand's infrastructure, law and order, and public services. He emphasizes the importance of action over political distractions.

Labour has edged ahead of National and the left bloc has enough votes to govern if the results were reflected at an election, a new Taxpayer’s Union poll suggests.

The poll, conducted between March 2 and 4, also places Chris Hipkins ahead of Christopher Luxon as preferred prime minister.

It brought National up 1.7 percentage points to 33.6%, while Labour gained 2.8 percentage points to 34.%.

The Greens dropped 3.2 percentage points to 10%, while ACT dropped 2.3 percentage points to 7.7%.

New Zealand First was down 1.3 percentage points to 5.1%, just above the 5% party vote threshold needed to stay in Parliament without winning an electorate seat, while Te Pāti Māori rose 2.1 percentage points to 6.5%.

ACT leader David Seymour, National leader Christopher Luxon, and Labour leader Chris Hipkins.

National gained three seats to 42, while Labour also rises by three seats to 42. The Greens lost four seats, bringing them to 12, while ACT dropped two to 10 seats. New Zealand First fell by two seats to six, and Te Pāti Māori gained two to a total of eight seats.

Based on these results, the centre-right bloc drops one seat to 58, while the centre-left bloc gains one seat to 62. On these numbers, National and ACT could not form a government even with the support of New Zealand First.

Preferred PM

Christopher Luxon dropped slightly to 20.3% (-0.4 points), while Chris Hipkins jumped 3.1 percentage points to 20.7%. David Seymour fell to 5.0% (-1.4 points), Winston Peters was at 8.6% (+0.6 points), and Chlöe Swarbrick fell 4.1 points to 4.8%.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman James Ross said “Kiwis elected this Government to fix the economic mess. Unless the Government starts delivering meaningful growth, the polls are only going to show them slip further.”

“Luxon losing his top spot as preferred prime minister for the first time has to be a wake-up call. We’re neck-deep in the worst economic downturn in three decades, and the country needs to see a plan to rebuild the economy.”

“With Budget 2025 in just over two months’ time, now’s the time for the Government to be laser-focused on delivering economic growth. Kiwis need high bang-for-buck reforms like full capital expensing, because managed decline has lost its appeal.”

The poll results and information about the methodology are available on the Taxpayers' Union website at https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/march25_nztupollsuhg

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union–Curia Poll conducted in February 2025, available at https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/poll_feb_25_basjfgas