Luxon’s political poll playbook: ‘I don’t care’

Monday, 11 August 2025

Labour has overtaken National in a new political poll, gaining 7 points since the election. Hipkins is now preferred PM, but National still clings to power with a one-seat majority.

Come surge or slump, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has a standard response to political polls: he doesn’t care about them, he is not going to comment on them, and there is only one poll which matters — election day.

He has trotted out similar responses in media appearances to the dozens of political polls released while he has been prime minister over the past two years.

This includes on Monday morning when a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll suggested there would be a hung parliament if an election were held, with the major political blocs tied on 61 seats.

The same poll had Labour on 33.6% (up two) ahead of National on 31.8% (down two).

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon generally won’t comment on political polls. (File photo)

“I don’t comment on specific polls,” Luxon told RNZs Morning Report, when presenter Corinn Dann quizzed him on whether the poll result is reflective of the cost of living crisis.

“It's very clear, New Zealanders, you know, want us, as the government, to fix the economy, and that's what we're trying to do, and we're working very hard to do that.”

But while Luxon may appear to dismiss polls, they play a major role in shaping public perception and give a window into the political mood, including how voters have responded to political decisions and strategies.

Here are some Luxon’s standard messaging while speaking to political polls, whether he and his party are up or down.

‘I don’t recognise the numbers’

A June RNZ-Reid Research Poll suggested the left bloc could out-muscle the coalition, but Luxon shrugged it off.

“I don’t recognise the numbers” he said. “There's lots of different polls and frankly I’m just not going to comment or focus on the polls. Frankly what we're focused on is we were elected in ’23 and people get to decide again in 2026.”

Polls bounce around

Earlier in March 2025, a Taxpayers Union-Curia poll was again not kind to the governing parties, giving the centre-right bloc just 58 seats - which is not enough to form a government.

It also registered Labour as the most popular party, and its leader Chris Hipkins as the most preferred prime minister.

'I don't give it a lot of thought,' said Luxon, 'I'm here each and every day making sure that we're actually growing the economy.“

He said the polls were “bouncing around a lot… I don’t give it a lot of thought. … Me talking about myself and polls isn’t particularly helpful”.

‘I just don’t care’

Luxon in October 2024, while attending the East Asia Summit in Laos, was asked about an October Taxpayers Union-Curia poll in which he dipped five percentage points to 27.7% in the preferred PM rankings, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins jumped 4.3 points to 16.9%.

“Whether we go up or down in the polls, as you know, I have the same position, which is I just don’t care,” he said.

“I’m focused on making sure I deliver for New Zealanders and we’ve got a plan – our plan is starting to work – and my job is to demonstrate to New Zealanders for 2026 that the country’s in better hands and is in a better place as a result of our Government.”

‘There is only one poll that matters and that is … election day’

In February, after a 1News-Verian poll showed a dip in support for National, Luxon remarked:

“There’s lots of polls… the only poll that matters is actually 2026 when the New Zealand public will make their decision and ask] ‘has this Government made them better off, or not, over that three-year period?’”

It was similar to remarks made to Newshub in September 2023.

“A poll is a poll. There is only one poll that matters and that is the poll that everyone takes part in on election day.”