Nicola Willis admits new poll number is bad for National

Friday, 6 March 2026

National’s deputy leader Nicola Willis has conceded that a new Taxpayer Union poll is “not a good number” for National.

National’s deputy leader Nicola Willis has ruled out a leadership coup against Prime Minster Christopher Luxon, but admitted new poll numbers are not promising.

Her comments to Newstalk ZB on Friday morning come after reports from Stuff and other media outlets that a poll, commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union and due out on Friday, has National’s support sinking to around 28%.

“It is not a good number,” Willis said. “If that was the number National got on the actual election, that would not be an acceptable result. We have to do better than that.”

The result is only slightly above National’s 2020 election low (25.58%) and well below the 38.06% it achieved at the 2023 election. The party was at 29.6% in the same poll series last October.

It is the weakest result in the Taxpayers’ Union–Curia series since the party was led by Judith Collins.

Dropping below 30% has been seen, previously, as a sign of failure from National MPs.

The survey was expected to have National at about 28%. (File photo)

Ahead of the 2020 election, Simon Bridges was toppled as National Party leader after a One News Colmar Brunton Poll had his party on 29%. But more experienced MPs may remember that changing their leader did not change National's fortunes. They achieved a 25% election result under Collins that year.

Willis said the party would need to look at Friday’s poll result and consider what it might signal about what New Zealanders are thinking.

“I am not happy with that number. I don’t think our National Party team would be happy with that number. I don’t think the Prime Minister would be satisfied with that number.”

Parliament held an urgent debate on the escalating crisis in the Middle East, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon under pressure to clarify New Zealand’s stance on Iran after misspeaking about actions against the regime.

She said this sort of polling risks a change of Government in November, which she believed would be “terrible for New Zealand”.

Willis also said it had not been a “great week” for Luxon, but noted leaders around the world were facing difficult polling environments.

The poll comes on the back of a tough week for Luxon and his Government. The Prime Minister was widely criticised for his handling of questions about New Zealand’s response to United States and Israeli strikes on Iran.

During Monday’s post-Cabinet press conference, Luxon struggled to clearly outline the Government’s position and later acknowledged he had misspoken after saying “any action” to stop the Iranian regime from acquiring nuclear weapons would be “a good thing”.

National’s results in other recent polls has been mixed.

February’s TVNZ Verian Poll had National on 34%, just four points down from its 2023 election result. Whereas the result of The Post/Freshwater poll, also conducted early last month, had National at just 30%.

Over the past year, National has been polling between 29% and 35%.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and then Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters in Parliament in 2023.

Luxon also faced internal pressure late last year, when an alleged attempted leadership move involving senior minister Chris Bishop was halted before it progressed.

This latest poll could renew leadership speculation within National.

Coalition partner and NZ First leader, Winston Peters, agreed the poll was concerning. “It’s not good, is it?” he said, speaking to Ryan Bridge Today.

Peters said a poor poll result wouldn’t affect his party’s plans. They were on a mission to make sure they weren’t a “one election wonder,” he said.

When asked if he could work with Luxon as Prime Minister again, Peters said in any crisis “you take the circumstances you have got”.

“Make the very most of it is what NZ First is going to do,” he said.