New Zealand First soars, Greens plummet, National in 20s again in new poll

Thursday, 16 April 2026

New Zealand First has risen to 15% in a new poll - with the smaller party saving the fortunes of the centre-right bloc as National still struggles to clear the 30% mark.

Stuff has obtained a copy of the latest poll Talbot Mills Research has prepared for its corporate clients. Talbot Mills also does internal polling for the Labour party.

It shows Labour out in front on 36% - up one percentage point, while National was back on 29% - a fall of three percentage points, while New Zealand First had climbed four points to 15%.

Act was up one point on 8%, the Greens plunged four points down to 7% - their lowest result in this poll since 2021- and Opportunity was on 2.3 ahead of Te Pāti Māori on 1.9%.

The results would see the centre-right bloc retain power, albeit with a severely kneecapped National party.

The government approval has flipped on them since the last poll with 50% disapproving of the performance of the government and only 45% approving.

On the measure of whether New Zealand is heading in the right direction or off on the wrong track, 49% said the country was off on the wrong track while 39% said New Zealand was going in the right direction.

Chris Hipkins was still the favourite in the preferred Prime Minister stakes on 23%, with Christopher Luxon behind him on 20% and Winston Peters nipping at their heels on 15%.

Green co-leader Chloe Swarbrick registered on 9%, while Act’s David Seymour got 7%, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi and Green co-leader Marama Davidson got 3% each while Te Pāti Māori’s other co-leader Debbie Ngarewa Packer got 1%.

Labour’s Kieran McAnulty and National’s Erica Stanford - who have both been mused about as potential future leaders of their respective parties picked up 1% of the vote each.

The commentary accompanying the poll noted National’s result was below the 30% mark that “seems to have emerged as an informal KPI for Christopher Luxon”.

It also noted that on this poll’s numbers there technically could be a Labour New Zealand First government but the pollsters noted this would “be hard to imagine” given the concessions necessary on both sides. Winston Peters has also ruled out working with Chris Hipkins.