Kiwi exporters eye $1b windfall after US Supreme Court overrules tariffs

Monday, 4 May 2026

New Zealand exporters could be in line for up to NZ$1 billion in tariff refunds after a United States Supreme Court ruling overturned a key set of trade duties.

New modelling by Ernst & Young New Zealand (EY New Zealand) indicates exporters could collectively be eligible for refunds linked to tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which the court found exceeded executive authority and must be reversed.

The modelling relates to duties paid on New Zealand exports subject to IEEPA tariffs between April 2025 and February 2026. U.S. Customs and Border Protection commenced the refund process from 20 April 2026.

Export sectors that were subject to the IEEPA tariffs, and may therefore be eligible for refunds, include agricultural and agri-food exports such as meat, dairy, fruit and wine, as well as manufactured goods including machinery, medical devices and instruments.

EY New Zealand partner and indirect tax leader Paul Smith said the modelling highlighted a significant but uneven opportunity.

“Our modelling shows there is a substantial pool of refunds potentially available to New Zealand exporters, but the ability to access those refunds will vary considerably depending on how individual supply chains and importing arrangements are structured,” Smith said.

A key determinant of eligibility is whether a New Zealand exporter is the importer of record for U.S. customs purposes. Where exporters have a U.S. subsidiary acting as the importer, they may apply directly for refunds. Where they are not the importer of record, exporters will need to consider whether they have legal or contractual avenues to recover refunded duties.

“In practice, this means we do not expect every dollar of the estimated NZ$1 billion to flow back to New Zealand businesses,” Smith said.

“Where exporters are not the importer of record and do not have control or influence over the importer, some refunds may ultimately be retained offshore.”

Refunds are being administered through the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries claim portal within the U.S. Automated Commercial Environment, with Phase 1 covering straightforward entries that are unliquidated or recently liquidated. Further phases are expected to follow.

“The refund process has now formally commenced, but it is not automatic,” Smith said.

“Exporters need to actively assess their eligibility, understand which entries qualify under the first phase, and ensure claims are made correctly. Importantly, these refunds apply only to IEEPA-based duties and not to other U.S. tariff regimes.”

Despite the Supreme Court decision, other U.S. tariffs remain in place, most notably those imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. These include tariffs on steel, aluminium, copper and related derivative products, with some products still subject to duties regardless of free trade agreement preferences.

EY New Zealand estimates these tariffs have cost New Zealand businesses approximately NZ$172 million as of February 2026.

The Supreme Court ruling provides relief in relation to IEEPA tariffs but does not signal a broader rollback of U.S. trade protectionism.

Looking ahead, New Zealand is also included in a broad Section 301 investigation assessing whether trading partners have imposed or enforced bans on goods produced using forced labour. While few countries are expected to meet the investigation threshold, the process carries a credible risk of new trade measures or replacement tariffs being introduced.

“For exporters, the current New Zealand–United States tariff environment remains complex and uncertain,” Smith said.

“While refunds offer a near-term opportunity, businesses should continue to plan on the basis that elevated tariffs, new investigations and ongoing compliance requirements are likely to remain part of the trading landscape.”