MBIE downplays advice suggesting LNG is not required

Thursday, 11 June 2026

MBIE is seeking to downplay a document, released under the Official Information Act, which suggests a LNG facility is not required.

The modelling, released to RNZ, features an external consultancy advising MBIE there is “a low need” for a LNG facility.

MBIE officials say this was “one input to a wider tranche of advice”.

Government officials are seeking to downplay modelling that appeared to suggest a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal was not required.

Energy Minister Simeon Brown confirmed plans this week to push ahead with procuring a LNG import facility, despite having no clear plan for how to pay for it.

But on Thursday, RNZ reported that the Ombudsman had forced MBIE to release unredacted versions of scenario modelling under the Official Information Act.

The unredacted documents show an external consultancy advised officials of a “low need” for a LNG facility in New Zealand.

The analysis, which has now been published publicly on MBIE’s website, considered New Zealand’s potential energy scenarios in 2028, 2030, 2035 - both with and without LNG and with various levels of renewables, local gas and coal reliance.

Under most scenarios, LNG could reduce price volatility but would not eliminate high prices, the consultancy found.

However, MBIE has clarified that this document was just “one input to a wider tranche of advice that MBIE was preparing for Cabinet”.

“The enclosed draft slide pack is a working document that was used as a vehicle for Concept Consulting to progressively set out information relating to modelling approaches, limitations, input data, assumptions, scenarios, insights and model outputs,” an explanatory note published with the advice reads.

“It was strictly for the purposes of free and frank engagement between Concept and MBIE as the modelling progressed. As such, it was a working document that Concept progressively updated over time.”

MBIE has confirmed there were no further versions of the document, but said it fed into a summary of Concept’s analysis that was proactively released in February, which informed its advice to Cabinet.

That document outlines Concept’s approach to modelling and summarises outcomes.

Almost all the scenarios listed in this overview report showed less price volatility where LNG was available, but projected lower spot prices for an average year in just four of 14 comparable scenarios.

Spot prices were projected to be lower in extreme adverse weather years (approximately 1-in-20 year events) in seven of the 14 comparable scenarios, where LNG was available.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said on Thursday that a LNG facility is still needed for those adverse weather years where less wind, rain and sun means renewables are not as reliable.

“By actually saying and, and, and, we do renewables, and we actually put a $1.4 million coal strategic coal reserve behind Huntley, and we actually create the diesel strategic reserve, and we actually import and create an importation facility for LNG, that is a much better option for us,” he said.

This article was updated on June 11 to remove a reference to other versions of the working document, following further clarification from MBIE.