Coalition out in new poll, Opportunity nudging so close to 5%

Tuesday, 23 June 2026

The coalition would lose power on the numbers of the new 1News Verian Poll, and the Opportunity Party is so close to jumping the 5% hurdle into Parliament.

National was on 29%, down 1 percentage point from Verian’s April poll, while Labour was the highest polling party on 32% – despite plunging 5 points. The Greens were up two to 13%, New Zealand First up one to 11%, Act dropped one to 6% and Te Pāti Māori polled 1.8% – up 0.3 points.

The rebranded Opportunity Party is the wild card threatening to upset the election at this stage, registering on 4.6% – just 0.4 percentage points off the 5% needed to get into Parliament.

Translated to seats by Verian, the right bloc only made it to 60 – not enough to govern with National’s 37, New Zealand First’s 15 and Act’s 8, while the left bloc managed 64 – Labour with 41, the Greens’ 17 and assuming Te Pāti Māori retains its six seats.

The results are largely in line with other recent polls that show National stuck around the 29-30% mark. In the latest The Post/ Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure New Zealand, National landed at 29%, while Labour measured in at 35%.

The day after the last Verian poll was released, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon called and survived a party leadership vote following weeks of speculation about his leadership and poor polling results.

Since then, the government delivered it’s third Budget and there has been a clear shift from the governing parties in particular into campaign mode ahead of November’s election.

With just 137 days until election day, polls will start coming in thick and fast.