Research predicts short warning time for tsunamis from newly found fault system

Tuesday, 28 January 2020

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A newly identified complex fault system north of Gisborne may shed new light on the risks of earthquakes and tsunami in the region, according to new research led by GNS Science.

The findings, reported in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, suggest that distinctive marine terraces were caused by earthquakes on multiple offshore upper plate faults.

The newly-found complex fault system was part of the Hikurangi subduction zone which could devestate the east coast with a tsunami. Photo of a projected tsunami.

A team led by Dr Nicola Litchfield of GNS Science used radiocarbon and other methods to date the ages of marine terraces at two North Island sites, Puatai Beach and the mouth of Pakarae River.

Previously scientists thought the youngest terraces were created at the same time by a rupture in the Hikurangi subduction zone or a single-fault earthquake in the upper plate. But radiocarbon dating of beach shells and layers of volcanic ash showed the uplift happened at different times.

Scientists at work finding evidence for the newly identified fault system north of Gisborne.

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'New research techniques allow us to build a high-resolution picture of where and how these uplifts occurred,' Dr Litchfield says.

'We're now confident that each terrace represents an individual quake – and the patterns of uplift allowed us to map new offshore faults in the region.'

Litchfield said the magnitude 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake in 2016 prompted seismologists to look closely at the mechanisms behind complex multiple-fault earthquakes.

She says this research will add to the growing understanding of the hazards posed to the East Coast by the Hikurangi subduction zone.

'Since the newly-identified faults are close to the coastline, this may mean short warning times for a tsunami.

'We need to learn more about these newly mapped offshore faults, how they might rupture together, and what they mean for the overall seismic hazard.

'This study is part of a huge work programme led by GNS Science's Dr Laura Wallace, funded by a grant from the MBIE Endeavour Fund – which aims to unlock the secrets of the Hikurangi subduction zone.'