Why it makes no sense for Red Bull to demote struggling Liam Lawson now
Monday, 24 March 2025
Red Bull principal Christian Horner says reports of Liam Lawson being replaced are ‘purely speculative at the moment’.
Soon after the chequered flag fell on the Chinese Grand Prix, a media report emerged claiming Lawson was likely to be demoted before Japan.
Unlike Melbourne and Shanghai, Japan’s Suzuka Circuit is a track where Lawson has plenty of experience.
ANALYSIS: After 103 Grand Prix laps, the first report of Red Bull dumping Liam Lawson has surfaced.
In the brutal world of Formula 1, where fans and media have even less patience than the cut-throat teams themselves, maybe that’s not a huge shock following Lawson’s nightmarish start to his Red Bull tenure, but that doesn’t mean it makes sense.
After starting from pit lane, a penalty incurred by a desperate late suspension gamble to improve the set up of his RB21, Lawson crossed the finish line of the Chinese Grand Prix in 16th. Time penalties and disqualifications lifted the Kiwi to 12th but the pre-season expectation was for Lawson to score points with top 10 finishes.
Soon after the cars crossed the line in Shanghai, a report from Autosport suggested Lawson could be replaced by Racing Bulls driver Yuki Tsunoda - as early as before the Japanese Grand Prix - the next stop on the F1 calendar on April 6. It said Lawson would drop back to Red Bull’s junior team, Racing Bulls.
A few days is a long time in F1. At the start of the week in Shanghai, it was Tsunoda’s team-mate Isack Hadjar - the rookie who replaced Lawson - who was supposedly the heir apparent to Lawson’s Red Bull seat.
Lawson and Red Bull agree the results haven’t been good enough so far but going back on their own decision, made in December, after two rounds would be a bizarre move for a team who aren’t exactly at the top of their game.
Even Lawson’s team-mate, reigning world champion Max Verstappen, said his car wasn’t fast enough to win in China. He eventually made a late pass on Charles Leclerc, who was later disqualified, to finish fourth.
Aside from losing faith in Lawson - who crashed out of the Australian Grand Prix in a team gamble in the wet and made passes to finish 14th in China’s sprint race, after just two stops of the season - the timing to demote him ahead of Japan would be a hard call to understand despite his underwhelming start to the season.
The Suzuka Circuit, where the Japanese Grand Prix is contested, is a track Lawson knows well, unlike Melbourne and Shanghai where he had not raced previously.
In his 2023 stint as an injury replacement for Daniel Ricciardo, Lawson finished 11th in the Japanese Grand Prix and in the same year, raced there multiple times in the Super Formula Championship.
With Suzuka not being a sprint weekend, Lawson and Red Bull will also get three much-needed practice sessions in before qualifying.
Plus, the race is two weeks away meaning, unlike the seven-day turnaround between Melbourne and China, there will be time for Red Bull and Lawson to identify where it’s all going wrong and try to find some solutions.
The 23-year-old Kiwi has been on the back foot since the get-go. He came into the season underdone after completing less older car testing than other rookies in the field and the team had a cooling system issue at testing in Bahrain, which alongside the wet weather, cut into his time on track.
Speaking in China, former F1 driver turned analyst Martin Brundle said it made no sense for Red Bull to lose faith in Lawson after just two weekends following their off-season call to select him over Tsunoda.
“That was the choice they made Red Bull knows what they are looking for, they’ve got all the data, they don’t make decisions on a whim,” Brundle said on SKY Sports.
“You don't risk 50% of several hundred million pounds worth of investment because you think they might be better, they've got data to suggest that so they think the talents in there.
“Somehow Liam has to keep his chin up and deliver it,” he said.
Tsunoda has started the 2025 season strong, especially in terms of qualifying speed, but Verstappen predicts Lawson would be doing the same after the Kiwi, for the most part, outperformed the Japanese driver in the Racing Bulls programme at the back end of last season.
Verstappen defended Lawson when speaking to Dutch outlet De Telegraaf.
“It also shows that our car is extremely tough. I think if you put Liam in the Racing Bulls car, he will go faster. I really think so. That car is easier to drive than ours,' Verstappen said.
Lawson showed he had the required talent in 2023 and 2024 but between him and Red Bull they need to find a quick fix because even though now is not the time, patience does wear thin quickly in the Red Bull camp.