The FIFA World Cup draw decision that could hurt the All Whites' chances

Monday, 17 November 2025

All Whites coach Darren Bazeley reacted after his side's 2-1 loss to Colombia in Florida.

The world No 85 All Whites will be among the lowest-ranked teams in the draw for next year's FIFA World Cup in North America no matter what happens in their last match before it is conducted, against world No 23 Ecuador in New Jersey (kickoff 2.30pm Wednesday NZT).

But the global governing body's choice of procedure for that draw, which is yet to be confirmed, could hurt their chances of securing New Zealand's first men's World Cup win.

The All Whites were the fifth team to book their World Cup spot, after Japan, who did so just before them in March, and the three host nations – the United States, Mexico and Canada – who qualified automatically.

Another 27 teams have since joined them and by the end of Wednesday, 10 more will have qualified, with the final six teams – four from Europe and two from the rest of the world – to be found after playoffs next March.

The World Cup draw is set to take place on December 6 (6am NZ time) in Washington, DC, at a time when there will still be 22 countries vying for those last six spots – 16 via four paths in Europe and six via two paths in the intercontinental playoffs in Mexico.

FIFA therefore has to decide how it accounts for those unknown teams when it seeds the 48 teams into four 12-team pots ahead of next month’s draw, according to their FIFA rankings.

Each of the 12 four-team groups at the World Cup will feature one team from each pot, with the three host nations automatically placed in pot one and already drawn into groups A, B and D.

As a general rule, each group can’t have more than one team from each continent, though four groups will have to have two European teams, and it will be impossible to fully account for the locations of the two intercontinental playoff winners.

The All Whites will be in pot four regardless of which procedure FIFA chooses, but the decision will determine who else ends up there – and therefore, which 11 teams they will be unable to be drawn with.

It was expected FIFA would stick with the same procedure it used for the last World Cup, in Qatar in 2022, and for the last Women's World Cup, in Australia and New Zealand in 2023, where unknown playoff winners were placed in pot four.

But Football Meets Data reported last week it had received “strong indications” FIFA would change to a procedure where the unknown playoff winners would be seeded according to the ranking of the best team in each playoff path.

Up to six of the All Whites’ weakest possible World Cup opponents under the established procedure would no longer be potential opponents under the new procedure.

Under the established procedure – using Football Meets Data's projections as to who claims the 10 places still up for grabs this month and who lands in each playoff path – pot four would consist of Jordan (projected to be ranked 67th after this window, with two days of matches still to come), Cabo Verde (68), Jamaica (69), Ghana (73), Haiti (85), New Zealand (86) and the six unknown playoff winners.

Under the new procedure, Qatar (51), Uzbekistan (52), Saudi Arabia (58) and South Africa (60) would shift from pot three to pot four, taking the four weakest potential opponents for the All Whites off the board.

The two intercontinental playoff winners would remain in pot four, while the four European playoff winners would be seeded in pots two and three. Depending on results over the next two days, one or both of the places reserves for intercontinental playoff winners could shift from pot four to pot three.

With 15 teams still chasing seven direct qualification spots in Europe and seven teams still chasing three spots in North and Central America, there is still plenty that can change when it comes to the specifics of who will be seeded where.

Chris Wood and the All Whites qualified for next year’s FIFA World Cup in March.

The eight teams that miss out in Europe will all have a second chance via the playoffs in March, but only two of the four that miss out in North and Central America will.

Bolivia (from South America), DR Congo (from Africa) and New Caledonia (from Oceania) have already secured places in the intercontinental playoffs, with the winner of this month’s Asia playoff between Iraq and the United Arab Emirates to join them and the two teams from North and Central America.

Only three of the 35 teams still chasing the remaining 16 World Cup places were ranked lower than the All Whites heading into the November window – Haiti in 88th, who are currently set to pass New Zealand when updated rankings are released later this week, Suriname in 126th and New Caledonia in 150th.

All Whites coach Darren Bazeley spoke on the prospect of high temperatures affecting play at next year's FIFA World Cup in North America.

Haiti and Suriname can both qualify directly out of North and Central America on Wednesday, but could yet fail to even make the intercontinental playoffs, while New Caledonia have played just once since losing to the All Whites in the Oceania qualifying final in Auckland in March and being consigned to the playoffs.

The All Whites conceded an 88th-minute goal as they lost 2-1 to world No 13 Colombia in Florida on Sunday (NZ time), then flew to New Jersey that evening as their focus turned to Ecuador.

FIFA World Cup 2026 – draw permutations

Teams in bold have qualified

Projected pots per Football Meets Data

Accurate as of matches played on Monday, November 17 (NZ time)

Established procedure

Pot 1: Mexico, Canada, United States, Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany

Pot 2: Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, Denmark, Iran, South Korea, Austria, Ecuador

Pot 3: Australia, Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Paraguay, Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Qatar, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa

Norway – and star striker Erling Haaland – have qualified for the FIFA World Cup for the first time since 1998.

Pot 4: Jordan, Cabo Verde, Jamaica, Ghana, Haiti, New Zealand, Six playoff winners

New procedure

Teams in italics are in different pots than under the established procedure

Pot 1: Mexico, Canada, United States, Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany

Pot 2: Croatia, Morocco, Winner of Italy's playoff path, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, Denmark, Iran, South Korea, Austria

Pot 3: Ecuador, Australia, Winner of Turkey's playoff path, Winner of Ukraine's playoff path, Norway, Panama, Winner of Poland's playoff path, Egypt, Algeria, Paraguay, Tunisia, Ivory Coast

Pot 4: Qatar, Uzbekistan, Winner of DR Congo's playoff path, Saudi Arabia, Winner of Iraq's playoff path, South Africa, Jordan, Cabo Verde, Jamaica, Ghana, Haiti, New Zealand