Super Rugby Pacific talking points: Playoff race loses steam with top six locked in ahead of final round
Monday, 25 May 2026
Super Rugby administrators aren’t going to get the drama-soaked climax to the regular season they will have hoped for.
Sure, there will be some jostling to decide the seeding within the top six, but the half a dozen teams set to contest the playoffs are set in concrete.
That’s the last thing officials will have wanted, given one of the arguments for rewarding six teams in an 11-team competition with playoff spots was the likelihood more teams would be alive for longer.
Yet the Hurricanes, Chiefs, Blues, Crusaders, Brumbies and Reds were locked into the top six on Saturday afternoon with two matches in round 15 remaining.
Indeed, the Highlanders, the only New Zealand franchise out in the cold, were dead in the water before another comprehensive defeat to the Hurricanes in the capital.
Handed a bye this week, at least they don’t need to play another meaningless match. The same can’t be said for the Waratahs, Force, Drua and Moana Pasifika.
Whether Super Rugby Pacific officials stick with the same playoff format next year, when the competition is set to shrink to 10 teams with Moana Pasifika’s demise, remains to be seen.
In the meantime, there are at least playoff permutations looming for the teams not named the Hurricanes and Chiefs, who are locked in as the No 1 and No 2 seeds respectively.
Playoff permutations
It’s simple for the third-placed Blues, at least on paper.
Fresh off their second bye week, beat the Chiefs in Hamilton on Saturday night and they’ll secure a home qualifying final.
Lose, and they’ll need the Crusaders to fall to the Hurricanes in Christchurch on Friday, and the Brumbies to fail to record a huge win over Moana Pasifika on Saturday afternoon.
It means the defending champion Crusaders need a bit of help if they’re to host a qualifying final in their new indoor stadium, which is already sold out for the Hurricanes match to kickoff the final round.
Regardless, a top four finish is crucial given it brings into play the ‘Lucky Loser’ card, which is reserved for the highest seeded loser during qualifying finals.
For example, if the Blues and Crusaders meet in the qualifying finals as the third and fourth seeds, both would advance to the semifinals regardless of the result, provided the Hurricanes or Chiefs don’t trip up against the Brumbies and Reds.
Speaking of the Australians, the Brumbies and Reds would both surpass the Crusaders if the red and blacks slip up to the Hurricanes, and they record big wins over Moana Pasifika (in Canberra) and the Fijian Drua (in Brisbane) respectively.
The first tie-breaker is number of wins, followed by points differential, meaning the Brumbies remain within reach of the Blues.
POINTS: Hurricanes (55), Chiefs (46), Blues (38), Crusaders (36), Brumbies (33), Reds (32), Waratahs (27), Force (26), Highlanders (24), Fijian Drua (21), Moana Pasifika (5)
Will the Hurricanes and Chiefs rest players?
Absolutely.
After all, they can’t gain anything from the final match of the season, and the last thing they want to do is risk losing players to injury ahead of the sudden-death stuff.
Hurricanes coach Clark Laidlaw, fresh from locking up the top seed after his team beat the Highlanders 45-28, wasn’t afraid to admit it, too.
“We want to pick a team that will go down and play the Crusaders well, but we’ve definitely got an eye to the week after, for sure,” he said.
“I think it will be a balance between guys needing rugby and some guys needing a wee break.”
One thing Laidlaw wouldn’t ever admit is the following: Beating the Crusaders could come back to haunt them.
After all, if the Hurricanes roll into Christchurch and hand them their first loss at One New Zealand Stadium, and the Brumbies and Reds record expected big victories, the defending champions would be headed to Wellington for the first round of the playoffs as the sixth seed.
Now, imagine a foul night in the capital, the type of weather the Crusaders thrive in. Would the Hurricanes rather face the champions or the Reds?
Chiefs coach Jono Gibbes, still hurting after his team blew an eight point lead with 15 minutes remaining against the Crusaders, said he hadn’t thought about his team to face the Blues.
However, he made it clear it was ‘too soon’ for star Damian McKenzie (concussion) to return.
What were the Crusaders thinking?
Rob Penney’s sheepish laugh said it all.
The Crusaders’ head coach knew they very nearly blew their pulsating 36-32 comeback victory against the Chiefs last Friday night.
The drama stemmed from the Crusaders’ perplexing decision to take a long range shot at goal through pivot Taha Kemara as time expired.
Kemara, who isn’t renowned for having a big leg, was well short on his attempt, allowing the Chiefs to counter with purpose and very nearly burn the hosts.
While hooker Codie Taylor was among players seen pointing to the sticks, Penney and his assistants, perched in the Crusaders’ spacious coaching box on the fourth level of One New Zealand Stadium, were dead against it.
“The shot at goal was probably about option 10, to be fair. We weren’t massive advocates of that,” Penney admitted.
“They got caught up in a moment, my word.”
Indeed, Penney would much rather they kicked for touch and backed their lineout, or had simply taken a quick tap and hoofed the ball into touch after a few phases.
“It all happened very quickly,” Penney said when asked if he tried to get a message down.
“Messaging is difficult at the best of times, there was plenty of people down there screaming to do alternative things, and probably that was part of it. There was just a lot of noise.”
ROUND 15 RESULTS
At One New Zealand Stadium, Christchurch: Crusaders 36 (Leicester Fainga’anuku, Jamie Hannah, Christian Lio-Willie, Johnny McNicholl 2, David Havili tries; Rivez Reihana con, Taha Kemara 2 con) Chiefs 32 (Kyren Taumoefolau, Samisoni Taukei’aho, Josh Lord, Quinn Tupaea tries; Josh Jacomb 3 con, 2 pen). HT: 17-19
At Allianz Stadium, Sydney: Brumbies 21 (Billy Pollard, Cadeyrn Neville, Allan Alaalatoa tries; Ryan Lonergan 3 con) Waratahs 14 (Isaac Kailea, Max Jorgensen tries; Sid Harvey 2 con). HT: 14-0
At North Harbour Stadium, Auckland: Reds 33 (Tim Ryan 2, Josh Canham, Treyvon Pritchard, Jock Campbell tries; Carter Gordon 3 con, Ben Volavola con) Moana Pasifika 31 (Augustine Pulu, Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa, penalty try, Israel Leota tries; Patrick Pellegrini 3 con, pen). HT: 21-7
At Hnry Stadium, Wellington: Hurricanes 45 (Josh Moorby, Kini Naholo 2, Du’Plesiss Kirifi, Ruven Love, Brayden Iose, Ere Enari tries; Ruben Love 5 con) Highlanders 28 (Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens, Timoci Tavatavanawai, Adam Lennox, Lucas Casey tries; Cam Millar 4 con). HT: 28-14.
At HBF Park, Perth: Western Force 19 (Carlo Tizzano, Vaiolini Ekuasi, Zac Lomax tries; Max Burey 2 con) Fijian Drua 15 (Kitione Salawa, Zuriel Togiatama tries; Kemu Valetini con, pen). HT: 7-12