Predicting the results of the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific semifinals
Thursday, 11 June 2026
And then there were four - and for the first time in Super Rugby history, they’re all Kiwi teams.
That’s not necessarily good for the competition, but it does leave punters with a couple of tasty New Zealand derbies to decide who will contest next week’s final.
Indeed, there will be no ‘lucky loser’ this week. It’s true sudden death playoff rugby (sorry Blues).
It all starts with a rematch of last year’s final on Friday night, when the Chiefs host the Crusaders in Hamilton.
The winner will face the victor of Saturday night’s clash between the high-flying Hurricanes and the Blues, who have stumbled into the semifinals on the back of four straight losses.
Sports reporters Robert van Royen and Joseph Pearson make their predictions (12- or 13+) below. Let us know via the polls and comments who you think will win.
Chiefs (2) v Crusaders (3)
Friday, 7.05pm, at FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
Robert van Royen: Chiefs captain Luke Jacobson maintains there are ‘no jitters’ ahead of another sudden death showdown with the Crusaders.
However, you can bet there is no shortage of anxious Chiefs fans, who are all too familiar with their team crashing and burning against the red and blacks when it matters most.
The loss of loose forward Wallace Sititi (concussion) won’t be helping their cause, nor will the three straight losses their team has suffered against the Crusaders, including in Hamilton in round three.
That said, the Chiefs are proof that regular season matches mean little in June. After all, they swept the Crusaders during the 2023 and 2025 regular seasons, only to cough up the final to their nemesis each of those campaigns.
The Crusaders head into the match with a head of steam, on a four-match winning streak, but the Chiefs will know they won’t come to Hamilton armed with ace fullback Will Jordan and a pack - they’re missing Scott Barrett, Tamaiti Williams and George Bell - as playoff hardened and littered with depth as in recent years.
No stranger to missing key kicks in past crunch contests against the Crusaders, Damian McKenzie’s performance could again decide another tight one.
Chiefs 12-
Joseph Pearson:
Sorry, Chiefs fans.
This is the harder semifinal to call, but my gut sways to the Crusaders (just, and I’m desperate to be wrong for the sake of a fresh narrative).
There is something innate and savvy about the resolve of the perennial champions.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, find new ways to stagger short of the final hurdle each season.
That will matter when it’s crunch time deep into what should be a tense, cold occasion.
Yes, it’s a different year and all that, but the Crusaders have ominously hit form at the right time with five wins from six. Familiar?
Hamilton does give the Chiefs a greater chance of slaying the red and black demon, which has to fall one day, but won’t on Friday night.
Crusaders 12-
Hurricanes (1) v Blues (4)
Saturday, 7.05pm, at Hnry Stadium, Wellington
RVR: Put a fork in the Blues already.
They’re about as likely to tip over the top-seeded Hurricanes as your local council is to announce a rates decrease.
As Hurricanes assistant coach Jason Holland pointed out this week, the Blues don’t have a problem scoring points and possess dangerous ball carriers.
However, their inability to stop the bleeding on the defensive side is alarming at a time they’ve been outscored 194-109 in four straight defeats to the Crusaders (twice), Hurricanes and Chiefs.
That’s a recipe for disaster against a team that ran in 86 tries - nine more than any other team - during the regular season, and just put 66 points on the Brumbies in foul conditions.
It’s also an eye-opening decline from a team that rode their hard-nosed play on both sides of the ball to the title just two years ago.
Hurricanes 13+
Pearson: How many teams have ever made the semifinals of any sporting competition after losing four matches in a row?
Well, the Blues have.
Call it quirk or a crazy playoff format, Vern Cotter’s ailing side are 80 minutes away from their second final in three years after conceding nearly 200 points in those four comprehensive defeats.
However, some comeuppance is overdue.
The Hurricanes defied some rotten Wellington weather to destroy the Brumbies last Friday. The Blues are next.
The attacking verve of Clark Laidlaw’s men should utterly overwhelm a leaky defence, although no Canes team has made any final since their solitary title in 2016.
Nerves might jangle as the pressure rises, but they won’t crumble this week at least. Not against the Blues.
Hurricanes 13+