Odds slashed on Trump winning Nobel Peace Prize

Friday, 10 October 2025

In this AI-generated image, Benjamin Netanyahu hangs a medal around Donald Trump’s neck.

With the Nobel Peace Prize medal placed over his shoulders, Donald Trump lifts his arms in celebration.

Here is the realisation of the president’s long-sought goal: recognition for bringing the war in Gaza (alongside six or seven others) to a close.

Or at least, that was the image generated by artificial intelligence and published on the social media account of the office of Benjamin Netanyahu, with the caption: “He deserves it.”

The picture was fake but with only hours to go before the Norwegian Nobel Committee announces a winner, the US president’s campaign has found real support: a spate of late backers has shortened odds in various betting markets.

“Retweet if you think Donald Trump deserves the Nobel Peace prize,” Eric Trump, the president’s son, wrote on X.

Palestinians in Khan Younis in southern Gaza celebrated and chanted together on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the parties had agreed to the “first phase”

More than 34,000 people obliged, as the odds in various betting markets shortened on Trump’s chances with just hours to go before the announcement on Friday morning at 10am.

In theory, the five-strong Norwegian Nobel Committee can change its decision up until the last minute. But in practice it is tricky, a source with knowledge of the process told The Telegraph.

On Polymarket, a popular prediction-betting site, Trump’s chances were rated at just 5 per cent, despite a late climb of 3 per cent. The heavy favourite on the site was the Emergency Response Rooms, a network which has provided aid to the millions of civilians caught up in Sudan’s civil war.

Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Alexei Navalny, the murdered Russian opposition leader, is second, followed by Doctors Without Borders and the International Court of Justice.

Insiders told the Telegraph that Trump could indeed win the Nobel, if he was seen as the driving force behind a lasting peace in Gaza.

However, they cautioned that the president’s wider record in government could count against him, highlighting his decision to cut USAid and impose worldwide tariffs.

Palestinians celebrate outside Al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip.

People react to the peace deal news in Tel Aviv, Israel.

The Nobel Committee’s role is to award the peace prize to the figure, or group, that has done the most to “promote fraternity between nations”, in accordance with the will of Alfred Nobel.

Asked whether Trump deserved the Nobel for his role in the peacemaking process, UK PM Sir Keir Starmer said the ceasefire deal “would not have happened without president Trump’s leadership”.

However, he stopped short of a full endorsement, adding: “What matters now is to press on and implement this… My focus now is moving this from the stage it’s at now … and make a success of this.”

Also backing Trump’s campaign is Gianni Infantino, the Fifa president, who said: “President Donald J Trump definitely deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for his decisive actions.” The US will co-host Fifa’s football World Cup next year.