By the numbers: World population set to hit 8 billion

Friday, 28 October 2022

In just over two weeks, the world’s population is expected to reach 8 billion, despite global rates of population growth falling in recent years.

The United Nations reported that the human population is predicted to hit the milestone on November 15. Continuing growth is largely driven by rising life expectancies around the world, meaning that more people are surviving until reproductive age and beyond.

But declining fertility rates – the number of children a woman will have on average – mean that the rate at which the world is growing has reached its lowest point since 1950, slowing to just under 1% growth per year.

Let’s break down some key numbers driving our population growth, and see how Aotearoa stacks up against the rest of the world.

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2.3

The global fertility rate currently sits at 2.3 births per woman – a significant decrease from five births per woman in 1950. There’s wide variance on these rates around the world, with South Korea’s fertility rate sitting at 1.1 compared to Niger sitting at 6.6, according to the UN Population Fund.

Despite this, the UN reports that even if governments made widespread efforts to reduce fertility rates in countries where they are the highest, this wouldn’t slow down the rate of population growth by very much, because most future population growth is already determined by the youthful makeup of our global population and rising life expectancies.

In the year ended March 2022, Stats NZ reported that New Zealand’s fertility rate was 1.68 births per woman, up from 1.60 in the previous year. This rate has fallen by over a quarter since 2010.

8

Just eight countries – the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania – are expected to account for half of the world’s population growth between now and 2050, according to the UN’s world population prospects.

India is also expected to overtake China and become the world’s largest country by population size sometime in 2023. The country’s population currently sits around 1.4 billion.

71.0

The UN reported that global life expectancy dropped to just 71 years in 2021 amid the Covid-19 pandemic. It previously sat at 72.8 in 2019. The pandemic may have prolonged effects on population levels around the world thanks to falling fertility rates and limited migration over the last two years.

Life expectancy lags behind by about 7 years in the least developed countries, which the UN says is due to high child and maternal mortality rates, exposure to conflict and violence and the ongoing effects of the HIV epidemic.

Stats NZ data from 2017-2019 showed that New Zealand’s life expectancy was 80.0 years for males and 83.5 years for females, echoing a global trend in which women tend to live longer than men.

Life expectancy for Māori in Aotearoa is significantly lower. Māori men are likely to die 7.6 years earlier than European men, and Māori die 7.4 years earlier than European women on average. Experts report this disparity is due to the negative impacts of colonisation and racism on the health and wellbeing of Māori.

7.86 million

Chances are, you’re likely to see New Zealand’s population reach another significant milestone in your lifetime. Stats NZ reported that there’s a 90% chance of our population size reaching 5.55-6.65 million in 2048.

Long term, numbers are expected to grow even more – there’s a 90% probability the population could reach between 5.62 and 7.86 million in 2073.

10.4 billion

The world's population is expected to keep growing in coming years, passing 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050. Numbers are predicted to peak at 10.4 billion in the year 2080, and then remain around that level for at least another 20 years as growth rates continue to slow.