Death knell for the census as we currently know it?

Thursday, 13 July 2023

Survey responses are declining globally and the cost of running censuses is increasing, says Stats NZ.

Future censuses may need to be done differently because of their rising cost and falling response rates, Stats NZ chief executive Mark Sowden has acknowledged.

The department suggested on Wednesday that it might still confound critics by achieving its target of gathering responses for the 2023 Census from at least 90% of people.

Updated analysis estimated between 89% and 91% of New Zealand’s “usually resident population” took part in the census, it said.

However, it will not know the exact response rate until next year, after it has weeded out duplicate forms and other anomalies.

It made clear that the estimated 89% to 91% response rate counted people who were listed on household census forms but who had not necessarily submitted an individual census form.

The 2023 Census for the first time included questions about sexual identity and orientation. (Video first published November 2022.)

The department had put the “raw response” rate for the census at just over 89% when the census closed last week.

In what could sound the death knell for the census as we currently know it, Sowden said it was “now evident that the traditional model for conducting a census, whether online or on paper or both, is not sustainable for the future”.

“Not only is it getting more expensive and harder to ensure response targets are met, but the traditional survey model is also not resilient to the impacts of extreme weather events or pandemics which are both considerations for the future,” he said.

“New Zealand is not alone with these challenges, with survey responses declining globally.”

Despite that, Sowden said Stats NZ would be able to produce high-quality national population and dwelling data from the March 7 census, when responses were combined with other sources of information.

The 2023 Census would be successful because it had been designed to “flex and adapt” to risks such as a low response, he said.

“Activity now focuses on using other data sources and methodologies so that the final 2023 Census data set represents around 97% to 98% of Aotearoa New Zealand and is of the highest quality possible.”

The first results from the census are due to be released in May.