More migrants leaving NZ than arriving for first time in almost 11 years
Wednesday, 10 July 2024
For the first time since June 2013, more people are migrating away from New Zealand than arriving here, according to Stats NZ estimates released on Wednesday.
It estimated that the country lost a net 2043 people in May, as 19,383 people left the country to live elsewhere and 17,340 arrived.
Stats NZ counts someone as a migrant if it expects they will change the country in which they live for at least a year, meaning its figures can capture people studying or going on “OEs”, as well as people moving here or away more permanently.
On an annual basis, New Zealand has still experienced net immigration.
Stats NZ estimates that over the year to the end of May, longer term arrivals exceeded departures by 82,828.
But also on that measure migration is trending sharply down.
Current estimates are that net migration peaked at just under 137,000 in the year to October.
Because of the way they are produced, Stats NZ’s monthly and annual migration estimates can be revised up to 16 months after they are first released.
Stats NZ estimates that over the year to the end of May, the country saw a net gain of 142,935 non-New Zealand citizens, and a record net migration loss of 60,107 New Zealand citizens.
In total, a record 85,576 Kiwi citizens left the country for a year or more, over the year, with only 25,469 returning from overseas.
Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said it expected net migration to remain in positive territory over the longer term but said the bank would be considering “what the low point of this cycle may look like”.
The slowdown in net migration was being driven by both sides, he said.
“Arrivals remain at historically high levels, but they are down from the peak seen early last year. Meanwhile, departures of New Zealanders in particular have been trending higher, and are above pre-Covid levels.
“This likely reflects a combination of delayed travel plans and the relatively robust jobs market in Australia compared to the slowdown in New Zealand,” he said.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said the cooling of migration would help ease the Reserve Bank’s “past concerns about the demand-side impacts of strong population growth”.
“The only significant showing of those pressures has been in rent inflation, which looks – tentatively – like its acceleration is petering out,” he said.