Climate minister denies Paris Agreement fail forecast threatens export sector

Wednesday, 17 July 2024

Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says the economy is in a ‘fragile state at the moment’, blaming the previous government for that.

Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says forecasts New Zealand will fail to hit its emissions reductions targets under the Paris Agreement do not threaten its lucrative free trade agreements with the UK and European Union.

The free trade agreements with the EU and UK include possible sanctions for failing to meet emissions reduction pledges, but Watts answered “absolutely not” when pressed on whether failure endangered the export sector.

“We are committed to the target, but how we will achieve the target will be different from the Labour and Greens government,” Watts said.

“Now the challenge is to finalise the plan and get on with doing the doing,” he said.

The Government appears to be relying on technology advances, such as methane inhibitors in livestock feed, tree-planting, and possibly buying overseas carbon credits to meet its reduction pledges.

On Wednesday, it opened consultations on its draft Emissions Reduction Plan for 2026 to 2030 which was required under the Zero Carbon Act, designed to ensure the country was on track to meet its international decarbonisation pledges.

Climate change minister Simon Watts says reduction of agriculture emissions will be based on technological advances.

The country is on track to hit its 2025 and 2030 emissions reductions budgets, but policy-changes since it took power mean it will fall short on its third emissions reductions budget covering 2031 to 2035, the consultation report showed.

The draft plan makes clear that the country would have to rely on additional measures to hit its long-term emissions reduction obligations.

But Watts said the long-term emissions reduction forecasts had a significant margin of error, and there were “a significant number of pathways” to reaching net zero by 2050, and biogenic methane emissions are 24% to 47% below 2017 level.

“Looking 25 years out with that margin of error, we remain confident and committed to hitting that target,” Watts said.

Failure to hit emissions reduction targets could result in the Government having to buy in carbon credits from emissions reduction schemes overseas to meet its obligations.

But Watts said The Treasury had assured the Government that the potentially multi-billion dollar liability did not yet have to be reflected in the Government’s balance sheet.

The Government is building more roads, but it says it is also focused on ensuring reliable and accessible public transport by more efficiently using the existing infrastructure.

“Treasury were asked for advice in regards to the recognition of that liability by minister Willis and I earlier this year,” he said.

The advice clearly to us is that there isn’t sufficient information at this point in order for that liability to be booked because there are a number of variables at play to meeting that objective,“ he said.

But it was something the Government would continue to monitor, he said.

The plan has been criticised by opposition parties.

Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said, “the Government is pouring oil, coal and gas on the climate crisis fire. Today’s draft Emissions Reduction Plan lays bare that they have no plan to reach carbon neutrality by 2050”.

Labour’s climate change spokesperson Megan Woods says ‘Every tonne of emissions we blow our budget by, we have to pay for overseas’.

“In a nutshell, their plan means largely giving up on stopping pollution at the source and a whole lot of wishful thinking,” she said.

Labour’s climate change spokesperson Megan Woods said “all the good work Labour did in government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and ensure we meet our climate targets is being undone”.

“It’s irresponsible, shameful and shows how out of touch National and their coalition partners are about the climate emergency we find ourselves in. They’re leaving our kids and grandkids to pick up the tab.

“Under this plan we’re going to blow our budget by 17 million tonnes – the equivalent of 153 million car trips from Wellington to Auckland,” she said.

“Every tonne of emissions we blow our budget by, we have to pay for overseas.”

Watts said the Government backed New Zealanders to come up with innovations to reduce emissions.

“We need to stay focused around looking for the technological solution option. We need a breakthrough, and we are investing to ensure that that will be the case,” he said.

The Government was not willing to sacrifice the economy to reduce emissions, he said.

“We need to be able to achieve economic growth and prosperity, and we need to be able to meet our committed targets,” he said.

“It is absolutely possible for us to achieve both,” he said.

Watts said the final plan for the 2025 to 2030 period would be finalised by the end of the year after considering public feedback, and advice from the Climate Change Commission.