Options for home buyers at decade-high levels

Wednesday, 4 December 2024

There were 33,984 homes on the market nationwide in November, Realestate.co.nz says.

The number of homes for sale nationwide has climbed over 20% since this time last year, leaving November stock levels at the highest since April 2015, Realestate.co.nz says.

There were 33,984 homes on the market last month, a 21.3% increase from 28,014 in November last year, the property website’s latest figures show.

Back in June, there were 31,745 homes for sale, and that was described as “a high level of stock”, and a stark contrast to 12,000 at the peak of the market in 2021.

Every region had an annual increase in stock in November and most were double-digit increases. The biggest increase was in Central Otago Lakes District where the number of houses for sale was up 40.9%.

In Auckland there were 12,314 houses on the market, up 19.3% from the same time last year, while Wellington and Canterbury’s stock was up 35.2% and 26.7% to 1878 and 4111 respectively.

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Realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Williams said while the number of homes for sale was high, it was not an oversupply.

“If there were 60,000 listings, and nothing was moving, that would be a problem, but our data shows properties are starting to move.”

The proportion of listings on-site for less than 30 days before being sold or withdrawn was up 1.4%, while those on-site for 30 to 60 days was up 3.1% and listings on-site for over 60 days declined.

Sales were gaining momentum, with the latest Real Estate Institute figures showing 6681 properties sold in October, the highest monthly total since March 2022, she said.

“Growth in the rate of new listings is slowing, which reflects a stabilising market, and should give sellers more confidence. But the amount of homes for sale means there is plenty of choice for buyers.

“It feels like the start of a turn, as since the Reserve Bank started cutting the OCR agents are telling us there has been an increase in engagement and intent from prospective buyers.”

But the increase in activity has not translated into rising house prices, the figures showed.

The national average asking price in November was $846,150, a decline of 2.8% annually and of 1.1% from October, and on a regional basis price movements were mixed.

Realestate.co.nz’s Vanessa Williams says the market is at a rare moment where certainty and opportunity have aligned.

Only six of the 19 regions monitored had annual price increases, and the biggest was in Central Otago Lakes District where the average asking price was up 2.5% to $1.47 million.

Of the main centres, prices in Auckland and Wellington were down 3.6% and 3.3% to averages of $1.02m and $806,174, while Canterbury prices were up 1.2% to $721,984.

Williams said there was actually some stability in prices, with the national average hovering between about $850,000 and $890,000 for the last 23 months.

While the national average was at the bottom of the range in November, overall there were no significant price fluctuations, she said.

“All but one region recorded single-digit percentage changes last month. This balance, with neither sharp rises nor significant declines, offers the stability buyers crave and the predictability sellers need.”

Falling interest rates and the absence of election-year uncertainty, which traditionally leads many people to delay property decisions, further reinforced the market’s stability, she said.

“This isn’t a frantic rebound, but the market is at one of those rare moments where certainty and opportunity align, creating a true ‘Goldilocks market’ that benefits buyers and sellers.”

In November Barfoot & Thompson had over 1000 sales for the first time in eight months.

Meanwhile, Barfoot & Thompson’s latest Auckland figures were released on Monday and also showed a high number of homes for sale, but an improvement in market sentiment.

The agency said it had 5711 listings at the end of November, and that was 8.3% higher than the average for the previous three months and 18% higher than at the same time last year.

But it had 1002 sales last month, a 4.8% increase on last November, and the first time in eight months its sales exceeded 1000.

Median and average prices were also up on previous months, although they were down on an annual basis. Auckland’s median was $1.01m and its average was $1.13m in November.

Barfoot & Thompson managing director Peter Barfoot said the lift in sales and prices would add to the growing confidence that the worst was over for the market and that stability was returning.

“The continued outlook for falling mortgage interest rates, a declining rate of inflation and expectations that the economy is edging towards recovery are all contributing to the resurgence in activity.”