Five areas where house prices are on the rise

Friday, 31 January 2025

The median national house price dipped 0.1% to $803,819 in January, CoreLogic says.

House prices remain in a holding pattern around most of the country, but a handful of areas are bucking the trend as the year gets under way, CoreLogic says.

The median national house price dipped 0.1% to $803,819 in January, and it was the fifth month in a row that it fell, according to the property research company’s latest Home Value Index.

On a quarterly basis, the median fell by 0.3%. That left it down 17.5% from the record highs seen at the market peak in late 2021, but it was still 16.3% higher than the pre-Covid prices of early 2020.

CoreLogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said since the “mini downturn” in the middle of last year petered out in August, prices had been in a holding pattern, and not moving clearly up or down.

But early signs of some modest gains in prices had started to become evident, he said.

Hamilton’s house prices are on the rise, up 1.6% over the three months to the end of January.

Hamilton had the strongest price growth of any part of the country in the three months to the end of January, the figures showed.

There, prices rose 1.6% over the quarter to a median of $748,944, and the city also had the strongest monthly growth of the main centres with its prices up 0.5% in January.

Of the other main centres, Tauranga was the best performer. Its prices went up 0.5% to a median of $904,920 over the quarter, but they remained flat with just 0.1% growth in January.

In contrast, Dunedin prices flatlined with monthly and quarterly increases of 0.1%, which left its median at $611,677, while Christchurch prices dipped 0.1% on a monthly and quarterly basis to $661,721.

Auckland prices were down 0.1% over the month and 0.3% over the quarter to $1.06 million, but Wellington prices were weakest, with monthly and quarterly decreases of 0.6% and 1.7% to $790,007.

While Auckland prices were down on a regional basis, results across its sub-markets were mixed. Notably, the North Shore turned in a solid performance with monthly and quarterly increases of 0.3% and 0.8%, which left its median at $1.29m.

Davidson said downwards momentum across many parts of Auckland appeared to be slowing, and North Shore was a market to watch as a possible guide to what the rest of the city did in the next few months.

Napier’s median house price inched up to $689,554 in January.

“Even so, with buyers still having plenty of choice, not least because of the pipeline of new property still being completed in Auckland, it's difficult to see a broad-based upturn kicking off any time soon.'

Outside of the main centres, there were early signs in a number of regions that lower mortgage rates had brought price falls to an end, and modest growth seemed to have restarted in some, he said.

Of these regions, Napier led the way with price increases of 0.2% in January and 1.3% over the quarter taking its median to $689,554.

It was followed by New Plymouth, where prices were up 0.9% on a monthly and quarterly basis to $703,040.

Davidson said with mortgage rates having dropped significantly from their peaks, and sales continuing to rise, the available stock of listings on the market might start to be reduced in the near term.

That would create more competitive pressure amongst buyers, and it would not be a surprise to see prices start to rise again shortly, he said.

“But there is cause for caution about how strong or sudden an upturn in prices might be in 2025, especially with the unemployment rate still rising.”

The coming year did look set to be stronger than last, but any upturn was likely to be more muted than in the past, he added.

Meanwhile, ANZ economists have released their latest Property Focus report, and in it they said the market had stabilised at the end of last year, and was starting this year on a stable footing.

Underlying momentum in the market was not suggesting it was about to take off, with improving sales being offset by a large backlog of stock, the economists said.

“Investor activity continues to lift, while owner-occupier activity remains relatively subdued, a reflection of the lack of churn amidst the stock overhang, which is reducing market mobility.”

The bank was still forecasting a 6% rise in prices over the year ahead, made up of a slow start to the year and a more meaningful upswing in prices in the second half of 2025, they said.