Ditching NZ: More people left than arrived for the first time since 2022

Thursday, 10 July 2025

Immigration is still slightly net positive on a ‘seasonally adjusted’ basis, but more Kiwis than usual are upending their lives by moving overseas.

More people moved away from New Zealand than migrated here in both April and May, according to updated estimates from Stats NZ.

The department now estimates the country lost a net 779 inhabitants though inbound and outbound migration during the two-month period.

That still represents a small inflow when the figures are “seasonally adjusted” to account for the time of year, as autumn is a season when net migration tends to ebb.

But the actual outflow is the first time the country is believed to have lost people overall through migration for two consecutive months since the last Covid-related travel restrictions were lifted in 2022.

How NZ keeps tabs on migration.

The April loss had previously been estimated by Stats NZ as a small gain. Estimates of past monthly migration can move around significantly for several months after they are first published, until it becomes clear what people’s actual movements have proven to be.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, New Zealand gained 1530 inhabitants through migration in the month of May and 14,808 people in the year to the end of May.

But the trend continues to be towards steadily declining net migration, after that peaked at 135,529 in the year to October 2023, with the departure of New Zealand citizens overseas continuing to run high.

Stats NZ’s latest estimate, which should now be fairly accurate due to the passage of time, is that a net 30,000 people from New Zealand moved to Australia last year.

Spokesperson Sarah Drake said that would be the largest loss for a calendar year since the 43,700 record set in the year to March 2012.

Traditionally, there had been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia, the department noted.

That averaged about 30,000 people a year between 2004 and 2013 before falling to about 3000 between 2014 and 2019 — prior to its new post-Covid spike.

Council of Trade Unions economist Craig Renney said last month that migration to Australia had acted as a safety valve for unemployment and helped disguise the weakness of the local labour market.

“If things are tough here, Kiwis leave, and they find work in the UK or Australia. And that is certainly what is happening now,” he said.