Trade surplus disappoints, but Finance Minister says export-led recovery not over

Wednesday, 23 July 2025

Exports to the United States, New Zealand’s second largest export market, after China, fell for the second straight month.

New Zealand’s monthly trade surplus slumped to what Moody’s described as a “tiny” $142 million in June, down from surpluses of more than $1b in each of the previous two months.

The change blots what had appeared a year-long trend towards a stronger trade performance.

Moody’s Analytics associate economist Shannon Nicoll said the tiny June surplus marked a notable shift from the strength of prior months.

Exports to the US declined for a second straight month.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis said she not believe the data marked an end to the “export-led recovery” she first heralded in March.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis said in March that the country was in the midst of export-led recovery.

She noted monthly trade figures could be volatile and believed the export recovery would continue and “be the theme of New Zealand's resurgence as a economy over the coming years”.

“Fundamentally, New Zealand produces products and services that are in high demand and I expect our exporters will continue to do well.”

Nicoll said exports had been falling, month-on-month, since April “even on a seasonally-adjusted and trend basis”.

“A weak Kiwi dollar made exports more competitive earlier in the year, but it has subsequently risen to the point where the trade-weighted exchange rate in June was about where it was in November.”

Moody’s Analytics expected the trade balance would deteriorate in the coming months “as recovering domestic demand leads to greater imports”.

“The outlook for exports is uncertain amid upheaval in global developments tied to US trade policy,” it said.