Government promises to look at ‘earlier action’ after climate miss warning

Wednesday, 15 October 2025

The Government has responded to a July warning from the Climate Change Commission that the country risks missing its climate change goals by committing to “explore opportunities for earlier action”.

However, it provided few details on what that might entail, saying the timing of actions needed to plug a gap between its carbon budget and forecast emissions between 2031 and 2035 needed to be “carefully considered”.

Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson labelled the Government’s response “wholly inadequate”.

“This Government is not serious about climate change. Our 2050 targets which the Prime Minister is supposedly committed to are at risk,” she said.

Labour Party climate change spokesperson Deborah Russell said the Government’s response to “the serious warning from the Climate Commission” was to trust the flawed Emissions Trading Scheme and “rely on risky forestry and promises of new technology”.

“This feels like the Government is just kicking the can further down the road instead of attempting to grapple with the need to reduce our emissions in order to meet the commitments we have made,” she said.

The Climate Change Commission warned in its annual monitoring report in July that the risk of New Zealand failing to meet its 2050 net zero carbon emissions target had increased, describing the country as being at a “fork in the road”.

Chief executive Jo Hendy said then that current policy settings weren’t enough to deliver the emissions reductions targets the country had committed to and that “urgent action” was needed to get back on track.

In an apparent challenge to the Government’s thinking, the commission recommended the adoption of “targeted policies” in addition to the Emissions Trading Scheme to speed up the shift to renewable energy, cleaner transport and low-emissions farming.

Its suggestions included land-use changes in farming, measures to move industries off gas, more incentives for EVs, subsidies for hydrogen refuelling stations for trucks and additional action to divert organic waste away from landfills.

The commission assessed the Government would fall two million tonnes short of its goal of reducing annual carbon emissions by an average of just over 16m tonnes between 2031 and 2035 even if all existing emissions-reduction initiatives worked.

But it estimated there were also “significant risks” to the Government achieving all but 3m tonnes of those planned annual reductions, with almost none looking like a safe bet.

There was, for example, no “back-up” plan if technological innovations that the Government is counting on to reduce methane emissions from cattle failed, it cautioned.

The Government’s response to the 153-page monitoring report — which was required under legislation — ran to 16 pages, many of which recapped the advice it had received from the commission and its own past actions.

The Emission Trading Scheme would remain “at the core” of its climate change response, “supported by policies that reduce the barriers to investment in reducing and removing emissions”, it said.

“New Zealand can have prosperous communities, affordable and secure energy and, increasing primary production and exports, and a thriving economy while meeting its climate change commitments,” the Government’s response stated.

Climate Change Minister Simon Watts on Tuesday rejected the suggestion that its philosophy was to do what it could on climate change so long as it didn't compromise economic growth or involve any sacrifice, saying that was “not representative of the Government position”.

“The Government has made it very clear that we're committed to our climate targets,” he said.

In response to the commission’s concern that government policies were heavily weighted to uncertain technological solutions to combatting emissions from agriculture, the Government said it recognised the importance of supporting a mix of mitigation options.

Work was under way on policies to reduce organic waste and capture biogas from landfills, it said.

The Government’s response to the Climate Change Commission report comes days after it announced it would slash its target for reducing methane emissions.

It plans to change the methane goal to one of achieving at least a 14% reduction from 2017 levels by 2050, rather than the previously targeted 24% minimum cut.

Watts told Parliament methane targets needed to be “practical for farmers, because a climate solution that bankrupts the people that feed us is not a solution at all”.

The move was quickly criticised by the Opposition and environmental groups.

Labour climate change spokesperson Deborah Russell accused Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of weak leadership and caving-in to pressure from his coalition partners.

Massey University professor Robert McLachlan described the reduced methane target as “a significant assault on the environment”.