Housing market ‘edging in right direction’

Tuesday, 16 December 2025

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House prices continue to creep upwards, despite a decline in sales last month ‒ and it shows market resilience, the Real Estate Institute says.

Nationally, the median price rose by 2.3%, or $18,000 annually to $808,000 in November, according to the institute’s latest data. It was also up 2.3% from $790,000 in October.

But the number of sales nationwide in November was down 5.7% annually and 4.4% on the previous month to 7268.

Still, local salespeople reported pockets of strong enquiry, highlighting growing sentiment at a regional level, the institute said.

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The variation in sales activity over September, October, and November prompted the institute to apply seasonal adjustments to get a clearer picture of where the market was heading.

That analysis showed that over the three months ending November the market was ahead of where it was at the same time last year, with sales nationally up 2.4% and the national median price up 0.2%.

Real Estate Institute chief executive Lizzy Ryley said looking at the three-month trend smoothed out monthly ups and downs, and it suggested the market was continuing to edge in the right direction.

“While the improvement is gradual, the underlying trend remains more positive than it was a year ago.”

Median prices continued to rise across many regions in November, with 13 of the 16 regions monitored recording an annual increase in prices, she said.

“Auckland’s median price is above $1 million ($1.05m) for the second month in a row, and Canterbury recorded a new high, with the median price hitting $720,000.”

Marlborough had the biggest annual increase in median price, up 15.2% to $749,000, but prices were up in all of the three main centres.

The Auckland region’s median price was up 2.1% annually, while Canterbury’s was up 3% and Wellington’s was up 1.9% to $790,000.

Meanwhile, the institute’s house price index, which smooths out variations that come from sales figures, was up 0.1% on October, but down 0.2% on the same time last year. It is 15.1% below the market peak.

Ryley said the broader trend indicated that, despite some local variations, the market remained resilient, with activity nationwide helping to support price growth.

Despite the slower sales pace, median prices had remained largely resilient, supported by a stable underlying demand, she said.

'First home buyers and owner-occupiers continue to dominate the market. With plenty of choice available, some buyers remain cautious and are taking time before deciding to purchase.”

But salespeople around the country have reported a growing sense of optimism in the market, she said.

“While sales have decreased slightly, some buyers are finding it easier to manage, due to easing interest rates, the November OCR cut, and more flexible lending criteria.

“These all seem to be contributing to a cautiously optimistic view heading into 2026.”

New listings continued to rise around the country, up 10.9% annually to 12,339 in November, leaving the total number of homes for sales at 35,345, up 4.0% on the same time last year.

But the national median days to sell time improved, falling by one day to 40 days, and auction activity picked up further, making up 18.4% of all sales nationally, up from 16% of sales last November.

Data released by Cotality and Quotable Value last week each suggested house prices were largely flat on a national basis in November, but there was regional variation.

Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said next year’s market would be defined by the regulatory environment in an election year, including debt-to-income ratios, capital gains tax debate, and looser loan-to-value ratios.

“Supported by an improving economy, with projected GDP growth and falling unemployment, property sales are forecast to reach around 100,000, driving median prices up by an estimated 5% nationally.”