By the numbers: The housing market at year’s end

Thursday, 18 December 2025

Lower mortgage rates are supporting demand from home buyers, and point to firmer market conditions next year, according to a property researcher.

It’s been another subdued year for the market, with much lower price growth than many economists expected.

But the Reserve Bank’s 50 and then 25-basis-point-cuts to the official cash rate in October and November have led to an increase in inquiry and activity, real estate agents have said.

Now, Cotality has released its latest housing chart pack. Here’s a by-the-numbers breakdown of the figures, and what they tell us about the market at year’s end.

$806,551

That was the national median price in November, according to Cotality’s Home Value Index. It is down 0.7% on the same time last year.

Taking the three months to November combined, there was no change in the median price nationally.

Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said although a wide range of economic confidence and activity indicators showed signs of a turnaround lately, any impact on prices remained limited.

“Lower mortgage rates have supported demand and lifted sales activity, while elevated listing levels have continued to restrain price growth.”

-17.4%

Significant price falls over recent years have left the national median price 17.4% lower than it was at the peak of the market in early 2022.

But some regions had seen a bigger decline than others, with the Wellington region’s the most dramatic. Its median price was 25% below the peak.

Of the main centres, Christchurch’s decline had been the smallest, and it was now down just 3.8% from the peak.

-2.2%

Auckland’s median price was down 2.2% in November compared with the same time last year, and that was the biggest annual decline of the main centres.

Wellington’s median was down 1.8% annually, but there continued to be considerable regional variation.

Christchurch’s median had increased by 2.6% annually, while Hamilton, Tauranga and Dunedin saw theirs go up by 0.3%, 1.2% and 0.2% respectively.

Markets such as Invercargill, Gore, and Ashburton had seen prices reach record highs recently. That was said to reflect better affordability and solid support from a robust agricultural sector.

3

Sales activity nationwide fell for just the third time in the last 31 months in November. They were down 0.6% compared to the same month last year.

But Davidson said the softer result appeared concentrated rather than widespread with the modest dip in sales largely focused on Auckland and Wellington.

“Mortgage rates have already fallen a long way over the past 12 to 18 months, and as more households roll onto lower fixed terms, conditions should remain supportive for sales to rise again next year.”

29,645

That was the total number of homes for sale nationally in November, and it was 13% lower than at the same time last year.

But the available stock was above the five-year average of 26,041, and remained elevated - although the recent lift in sales was placing some downward pressure on stock, Davidson said.

New listings remained firm by recent standards, and were sitting higher than would normally be expected during the winter lull and spring lift seen in earlier cycles, he added.

28.2%

First home buyers continued to dominate the market, and had a record 28.2% share of purchases across October and November combined.

Their presence was particularly strong in the Hamilton, Wellington, and Dunedin markets.

Davidson said they were taking advantage of falling rates and below-peak prices, and many found conditions workable in a way they did not during the previous cycle.

Access to KiwiSaver savings and banks’ low-deposit lending allowances were also helping, with about half of all recent first home buyers loans done at less than a 20% deposit, he said.

25%

But investors were also returning to the market, and their 25% share of purchases across October and November was the highest since 2021.

Activity was said to be most evident at the more affordable end of the market with the improvement in mortgage serviceability central to the return of smaller and newer investors.

2026

Improving borrowing conditions pointed to firmer market conditions, and a gradual improvement in 2026, Davidson said.

“Mortgage rates have already fallen significantly and affordability has improved. Economic growth is expected to strengthen through 2026, with unemployment forecast to ease.”

Those factors should support sentiment and prices, although any uplift was likely to be measured, with lending constraints such as debt-to-income ratio rules limiting the pace of growth, he said.