Trump resets global tariffs to 15% after US Supreme Court defeat: What it means for NZ exporters
Monday, 23 February 2026
New Zealand exporters are once more riding the waves of uncertainty after a weekend in which US President Donald Trump devised not one but two tariff changes on global goods.
Trump initially announced new global tariffs of 10% on Friday night in the US, and then 15% the next day ‒ the maximum allowed under a never-used trade law ‒ after the US Supreme Court ruled his previous import taxes were ‘illegal’.
The rule allows for new tariffs to stay in place for about five months, before the administration must seek approval from Congress. Few details about the new tariff regime have been released.
However, as the United States is New Zealand’s second-biggest trading partner after China, with Kiwis sending goods such as beef, wine, dairy, and services worth almost $15 billion to the US each year, there is once more concern about what it might mean.
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Hundreds of New Zealand companies export to the US, including wine companies, food and technology producers, and medical devices manufacturers such as Fisher & Paykel, the most valuable business on the NZX.
Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay said the country’s embassy in Washington was engaging with US officials to seek more information, and his office was unable to provide any new information on the proposed new tariffs.
But in the meantime, Auckland Business Chamber chief executive Simon Bridges said tariff uncertainty was hugely disruptive for business and exporters.
The chamber had been fielding inquiries of “concern” from members with questions following developments in the US over the weekend, he said.
“It's not business as usual because it's very significant uncertainty,” Bridges told The Post.
“Uncertainty around US tariffs for New Zealand exporters is a major challenge.
“Yes, there’s been a Supreme Court decision to strike down the 15% tariff imposed on most Kiwi goods exports out of the US, and that's at one level good news.
“But the problem is, on the other hand, President Trump said that those tariffs are going to be replaced with a new global 10% tariff under the United States Trade Act 1974, and that allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% for up to 150 days against countries that have large and serious balance of payment surpluses with the USA.
“I don't think we have that large and serious balance of payment surplus, but as a small country, we can get lost in the nuance around some of that.”
Bridges said trade officials would no doubt be making the case that New Zealand's trading relationship with the US does not have a serious imbalance, and so would be working to have any tariffs removed.
“It's actually highly balanced and complementary, and we don't engage in harmful trade practices that in any way justify the imposition of section 301 tariffs.”
Bridges said the uncertainty among businesses at this time “was the unfortunate boat we’re all in”.
“This is the new normal … this pervasive uncertainty and unpredictability at a level from the Trump administration, but we're seeing it from other countries as well. We just have to surf the waves as we find them. We're an exporting country. It's the only way we know, and we'll have to keep at it.”
Keeping watch
Philip Gregan, chief executive of New Zealand Winegrowers, the organisation that represents wine producers and exporters, said the announcements from the US effectively meant no change in tariff rates, as wine exporters were already facing a 15% tariff.
He acknowledged “there is clearly a lot of uncertainty at the moment” and said the organisation would watch what happens next closely.
Beef + Lamb New Zealand chair Kate Acland said it appeared New Zealand beef remained exempt, however, sheep meat exports would be affected by the new tariff.
“We remain of the view that the tariffs are unjustified and will have an inflationary impact on the United States economy,” said Acland.
Rabobank economist Ben Picton said the tariff uncertainty was more disruptive to business than the tariffs themselves were.
“The tariff authority the president was using was found to be illegal, and he's now enacted tariffs under a different authority where he has a much firmer legal footing. The new baseline tariffs of 15% is in line with the tariff rate that was previously announced for New Zealand.
“What will be critical is, are we still going to see sectoral exemptions for things like beef, kiwifruit, some of those food products that New Zealand sends in the United States? From the early comments that we've seen from a few different industry figures, there does seem to be a bit of optimism that there will be exemptions and carve outs on a sectoral basis.
“But I think it's fair to say that at the moment, it's still a bit unclear.”
The economic impact
Picton said that uncertainty would create a lot of problems for business, because it makes it harder to make firm plans and it means they are likely to delay any significant investments.
The part of the law the president had used means there is uncertainty about what can happen after the 150 days: “What happens then ‒ can he reapply this section of the tariff act? I've seen some opinions saying ‘no’. I've seen some saying ‘yes’.
“All of that creates a very uncertain operating environment for business, and it discourages business investment until they have a little bit more clarity.”
Which was not what New Zealand needed for an economic recovery right now, he said.
“One of the big issues the New Zealand economy is facing is low productivity growth, and one of the most reliable ways to get faster productivity growth is through business investment, so if you've got a trading environment that actively discourages investment, that creates some real headaches for the national economy.”
The US too had a problem ‒ finding a way to repay the US$160 billion to US$175b in tariff revenue now deemed illegal, he said.
Tariff exemptions?
In November last year, New Zealand producers of things beef and horticultural exports received an exemption from “Liberation Day” tariffs, which had been set at 10% in April and 15% in July.
“A lot of New Zealand food exporters weren't actually paying the tariff, but now that the 15% is being imposed under a different law, there is the possibility that exemption may no longer apply. We don't know for certain just yet,” said Picton.
Then there was an issue around the competitive advantage ‒ New Zealand’s 15% has to this point looked low compared to others, but now appears to be the same as its global rivals.
“Tariffs create winners and losers, and New Zealand was a relative winner, and that may no longer be the case,” said Picton.
While he could not provide details about Trump’s weekend pronouncements, Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay said local exports had been holding up well in the US market since the US administration imposed a 15% tariff on New Zealand, despite evidence cost increases were being passed on.
“New Zealand does not believe the 15% tariff imposed on many of our exporters is warranted given the average tariff rate applied to US goods into New Zealand is just 0.3%.”