Modest house price lift a ‘sign of things to come’?
Thursday, 5 March 2026
House prices around the country inched upwards last month, but the strongest lift since October is “nothing to get carried away about”, a property researcher says.
Cotality has released its latest Home Value Index, and it shows the national median price rose 0.2% to $806,697 in February.
The increase came after a drop of 0.1% in January, and four months of limited movement, and was reinforced by monthly price increases in all the main centres.
But the national median was still down 1.2% on the same time last year, and remained 17.3% below the market peak of $975,540 in early 2022.
Read more :
Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said February’s slightly stronger results could be a sign of things to come, but it was still early days.
“With sales activity trending upwards for some time now, mortgage rates down, and the economy showing signs of a pick-up, a re-emergence of modest gains in prices this year would not be a surprise.”
“The labour market probably holds the key, and most forecasts suggest that employment has already troughed, with the unemployment rate set to fall from now on.”
But a modest lift in national prices in a single month in February was nothing to get carried away about, he said.
“Given the cautious attitude that still prevails among both buyers and sellers, we’d need to see at least two to three more monthly increases before calling it a trend.”
On a monthly basis, prices were up in all the main centres, the data showed. But Hamilton and Dunedin had the biggest increases with both up 0.9% to medians of $711,699 and $619,067 in February.
In Christchurch and Wellington, prices were up 0.6% and 0.4% to $701,152 and $777,690, while in Tauranga prices were up 0.5% to $930,470.
All these centres also had quarterly price increases of more than 0.2%, with Dunedin recording the biggest at 1.3%.
Auckland was the weakest of the main centres. While its prices were up 0.1% on a monthly basis to $1.04 million in February, they fell 0.8% over the quarter.
Davidson said the Auckland market was still softer than many other parts of the country, but prices in all its sub-markets avoided falls, and were flat or slightly higher.
But Auckland’s housing affordability had improved significantly in recent years as prices had dropped leaving its median 23.2% down on its early 2022 peak, he said.
“Alongside lower mortgage rates, and as listing numbers continue to fall, a modest lift in prices over the medium term wouldn’t be a surprise. It’s too early to say if February marks the start of that shift.”
Outside the main centres, prices generally strengthened in February although prices in Rotorua and New Plymouth dipped 0.1% and stayed flat in Palmerston North, according to the data.
Whanganui, Invercargill and Gisborne had the biggest monthly increases, up 1.2%, 1.1% and 0.9% to medians of $521,106, $515,067, and $623,830 respectively.
Davidson said market activity levels should continue to increase this year, potentially bringing down the stock of listings, and creating more upwards pressure on prices.
But a recent increase in the stock of properties relative to the population was a restraint on price growth, and the 2026 election and discussion around property policies could impact on the market, he said.
“Athough the so-called animal spirits in the market have the potential to re-emerge at any stage and with little warning, a balanced view at present is for only modest growth in prices this year”.
Meanwhile, the Auckland region’s largest real estate agency, Barfoot & Thompson, said that last month it sold the highest number of homes in a February for five years.
In the first two months of the year it had sold 1609 homes, 16% more than at the same time last year, the agency’s latest data showed.
Barfoot & Thompson managing director Peter Thompson said price levels were drawing buyers in, with February’s median price at $904,000, down 9.6% on January, and the average price at $1.013m, down 13.3%.
They were among the lowest monthly median and average sales prices seen in Auckland since prices peaked in 2022, he said.
“The combination of high sales and low prices is part of the ‘structural change’ the Reserve Bank commented on when announcing the OCR would remain at 2.25% in late February.
“Effectively, housing supply is starting to meet housing demand, and the prices are drawing in buyers who once felt priced out of the market.”
At month end the agency had 6159 properties on its books, which was the highest number of listings it has had at this time of the year for 15 years, he said.
“The combination of good choice, stable prices and high sales numbers is drawing strong buyer interest, but for the first time in many years it is not putting pressure on prices.”