Iran war: NZ tourism ‘safe haven’ sees 13% jump in international arrivals despite Middle East conflict
Saturday, 21 March 2026
War in the Middle East does not seem to have deterred travellers to New Zealand, with data showing international arrivals actually increased at the start of March on a year ago.
International air travel and flights have been disrupted by the war in the Middle East and that’s affected inbound tourism to New Zealand. But it’s too soon to tell what the long-term repercussions might be ‒ and there could be an upside, tourism industry insiders say.
Airlines around the world have been cancelling and rescheduling flights, and Gulf airports including Dubai’s have been intermittently closed, since the US-Israel-Iran conflict broke out.
At the same time, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an important global oil shipping route, has led to a surge in fuel prices, and growing economic pressures.
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The situation makes for reduced airline capacity and higher travel costs, and is not good for the travel business, particularly leisure travel.
Tourism Industry Aotearoa chief executive Rebecca Ingram told The Post that to date the impact had been relatively small, although visitor arrivals from the UK and Europe had been affected.
That was because the routes airlines flew from the UK and Europe tended to get to New Zealand through the Middle East, she said.
“The Tourism Export Council has done a survey of its members, and there was a 20% response rate. Of the respondents, 77% have seen some type of cancellation from visitors from the UK and Europe.
“But it’s hard to assess what exactly that means as it might be one cancellation, or 10.”
Provisional data across the first nine days of March actually showed a 13% increase in international arrivals generally, compared with the same period last year, she said.
“Flight disruption appears to be easing, but we are expecting more data ‒ on border crossings ‒ next week, and that will help us understand the situation better.
“We’re talking to our members about what the impact could be for them, and fuel costs are on everyone’s mind. If the spike there is concentrated, we would expect some potential impact going forward.”
Ingram said most Kiwis planning domestic travel over the upcoming school and Easter holidays would have already booked it, and significant cancellations were not expected.
Disruption was not unusual in tourism, with volcanic eruptions in Europe an example, she said.
“These things happen and airlines and tourism operators have to manage them, look after people, rebook things, and plan ahead.
“This situation is fluid, and it’s hard to say what might happen, but it could encourage Kiwis to travel domestically rather than internationally. Lots of forward planning is happening right now.”
Queenstown is one of New Zealand’s premier tourism locations, and the visitor economy is hugely important to the town, Destination Queenstown chief executive Mat Woods said.
“The disruption in air travel has impacted a little, mainly for visitors from the UK and Europe, but people can still get here via other routes, and people still want to come here.
“We are a safe destination, our weaker dollar means international visitors’ money goes further here, it’s a fun and attractive place to come. There is strong demand into the future.”
Over 50% of Queenstown’s visitor market was domestic, but higher fuel prices could impact on that market as they affected air travel costs, and petrol prices for the drive market, he said.
“Queenstown is not in a strong position for the drive market because it's three to six hours from all the big South Island centres. That means fuel costs will be key going forward.”
Tourism operators would also have to weigh up what higher fuel costs meant for their business, and how to navigate the uncertainty, he said.
“But there are also opportunities to build greater resilience into businesses by increasing the use of solar or electrification of fleet or services, so fuel or energy price shocks don’t have the same level of impact.”
In Auckland, inbound tourism operators had seen some people from the UK and European market changing their itineraries, Tātaki Auckland Unlimited destination director Annie Dundas said.
“But the business event and conference market is an important one for Auckland, and we’ve not had any cancellations in that space, and we are working with conference organisers to mitigate any issues.
“The International Convention Centre has just opened, and has a good forward pipeline of bookings. Those bookings are largely domestic or from Australia ‒ although there are a couple of big international conferences coming up too.”
For local tourism operators, the concerns were around the costs of operating a business, and higher fuel prices just added to already high costs, she said.
“It’s possible the situation ‒ combined with the weak New Zealand dollar ‒ could lead more New Zealanders to holiday at home rather than going overseas.
“But we do have a focus on building Auckland’s international visitor market, particularly Australians and Americans. And New Zealand is known as a safe haven, so there is an opportunity there to fill some of those gaps we might be seeing.”
Auckland was also starting to see the impact of government funding for initiatives to boost visitor numbers and for events, she said.
“We’ve had a good run of events, such as SailGP and the Edinburgh Tattoo over summer, and there’s a long tail of them coming up, from Synthony this coming weekend to arts and sports events, to Robbie Williams later this year.
“They help drive up visitor numbers and spending, and it benefits Aucklanders too. Events lift the spirit of the city, and we want to see more of that.”
In Rotorua, another local tourism hotspot, the impact of the conflict in the Middle East has been relatively small to date.
RotoruaNZ chief executive Andrew Wilson said while the UK and Europe market had been impacted, the re-routing of flights through China and Asia to by-pass conflict zone was likely to start happening on a larger scale.
On a domestic level, most people planning to travel soon would have already booked, and would continue with their plans for the most part, he said.
“If New Zealanders delay or choose not to make international travel plans it might result in a little bump to the domestic market, but that could be offset by increases in fuel prices.
“But tourism is more resilient than people give it credit for ‒ because people crave that escape, to get away from everyday life. It’s one of the little joys that people treat themselves to, and look forward to doing.”
New Zealand had the advantage of being far away from the conflict, and that’s “something we probably don't take advantage of enough”, he said.
“In this situation we are blessed with being at the bottom of the world, and a safe place. We are pretty attractive as a destination.
“It would be far more difficult if the conflict had kicked off in November-December, but coming now off the back of a strong summer, operators are not feeling too bad.”
He expected demand for Rotorua as a travel location to continue, and said it was well positioned to be a good place to visit in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the world's largest campervan rental operator, NZX-listed Tourism Holdings, has downplayed the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on its operations in a presentation to shareholders.
In New Zealand the company owns brands such as Maui, Britz, and Mighty, and it also operates several tourism businesses, including Waitomo Glowworm Caves and Kiwi Experience.
There had been an “immaterial level of immediate cancellations in rental bookings” and an “immaterial slowing in international booking intakes” for Australia-New Zealand, the company said.
It also reaffirmed its recent earnings guidance for underlying profit of $43 million to $47m over the year to June.